Empirical Research On Financial Warning System Of The Listed Companies In China

To establish an effective suitable financial warning system has the very important realistic meanings for the listed companies and its benefit correlations, for it can send a dangerous signal when the company faces financial risk. So the purpose of this paper is to find warning indicators that can remarkably distinct the financial crisis companies and the non-financial crisis companies through analyzing financial indicators of the listed companies and establish warning model on financial crisis that is suitable for the listed companies of our country, provide the making-policy basis and the advice for related respects.On the basis of predecessors' research results, this article regards the listed company that is treated specially (ST) in 2007 because of "unusual financial condition" in A-share market as the research object. We select 94 companies and divide them into two groups, one training samples (composed of 25 ST companies and 25 non-ST companies) and one examining samples (composed of 22 ST companies and 22 non-ST companies). In virtue of SPSS15.0, fistly, this article studies the data characteristics of financial indicators of sample companies and tests significant differences of 22 financial indicators between the ST companies and the non-ST companies, then utilizes the single variable logistic regression analysis to select the financial indicators which have the remarkable contribution on the model forecast. Then the study uses Factor Analysis to reduce indicators and avoid the multi-collinear influence, finally select 5 variables as.the initial variable to establish model. This article uses the logistic regression analysis to establish the previous 2 years and 3 years' warning model on financial crisis for the listed companies and uses 50 training samples and 44 examining samples to test the validity of models .The result indicates: the return rate of accuracy of previous 2 years' warning model on financial crisis is 94%, the predictive rate of accuracy is 90.91%; the return rate of accuracy of previous 3 years' warning model on financial crisis is 70%, the predictive rate of accuracy is 72.73%.Obviously, two models get good predictive effect and have the certain application value.