The Analysis On The Appropriate Size Of Foreign Exchange Reserve In China

FER an important part of the international currency system, FER is then an important content within international economic system of a country. It concerns the governments' ability of adjusting balance of payment and stabilizing exchange rate, Also it is one of the marking of the economic power, as a result has being widespread concerned by all countries'government and international financing institutions. FER is ample or not relate to a country's international economic reputation and financal safety directly, as a esult it is a focus of our country's academic circles.Since China's foreign exchange administration reform in 1994, its foreign exchange reserve has been keeping continuously, the situation of the fast growth. In ten end of 2month, 2006, China's FER has reached 8537 billion US dollars, exceeding Japan, becomes the first FER country in the world. Then the foreign exchange reserve has been keeping fast growth.In the end of 3 month,2008,China's FER has reached 16822 billion US dollars. Holding a high sum of FER show our country's economic power, at the same time causes the government, domestic and abroad scholar's deep concerns and extensive controversies, brings a negative aspect for the China macroscopic economy.This text holds this focus problem exactly, analyzes the scale and present conditions of China's FER. First, the text in detail introducs the domestic and abroad development track of the appropriate scale, and elaborates the method and the technique route of the author's research .Second, from defining the appropriate scale of China's FER, passing the Target area model ,the text draw a conclusion that China's FER have a high sum and distorted structure .On the base the text find out that the reason of China's FER quick growth, deeply analyzes the cost and the income of holding a high sum of. FER, then puting forward the new counterplans and suggests to the phenomenon of FER'quick growth. Finally, predicting the tend of China's FER. The text consider that the quick growth of the Chinese FER may cause"The Chinese dollar", it cause a great influence to the world economy as well as"The oil dollar of 70's"and"The Japanese dollar of 80's".This text mainly regard qualitative analysis as principle, combining the quantitative analysis method at the time. this research is based on the traditional theories to analysis Moderate Scale with the normative analysis, at the time this paper construt a model adapting to the practical status of China and it is used to analysis Chinese FER. This text mainly regard the qualitative analysis to analysis the Status , Characteristics and problem as principle, this text put forward many countermeasures and suggestions on dealing with the excessive FER by theoretical analysis with policy suggestions. The paper mainly adopts the writing elucidation method, using a great deal of charts, formulas and covariance datas at the same time.