Research On The Determinants Of Excess Liquidity In China's Commercial Bank

Since entering the new century, the bank system's liquidity continues the loose condition under the background of global liquidity surplus. The performances is that large variance growths rapidly between saves and loans. M2 and M1 continually deviation, excess reserve of banks has a high level and money market interest rate has a low level. At this time, inspecting the serious liquidity day by day from commercial bank's view is advantageous for related department and each commercial bank and they can understand the situation clearly. They can also adopts the suitable measure unblocking surplus liquidity and maintenance economical finance's stability. This article elaborates the concept of current liquidity surplus and explains the connotation of liquidity surplus's forms mechanism. Through analyzing how to use flowing capital for commercial bank, it points out that saves and loan's variance is the performance target of our country commercial bank's fluidity surplus.After describing the commercial bank liquidity surplus present situation, this article begins from the changes of saves the loan in commercial bank .It analyzes comprehensively the possible factors about save and loan's change in commercial bank and selects 7 variables. By establishing the ARDL model as well as the ARDL-ECM model, it has carried on positive analysis examination by using the data from 2001 to 2007. The result of empirical analysis indicates that except the legal reserve requirement ratio, the cash demand proportion and average per person may control outside the income, other factors all influence commercial bank's fluidity surplus existence and foreign exchange occupies in the funds is the most main influence factor. Finally by union to commercial bank liquidity surplus theory and positive analysis, this article gives some advices about how to deal with commercial bank liquidity surplus problem. First, government through financial policy guides fluidity. Second, reforms foreign exchange reserve management system and improves the exchange rate formation mechanism. Third, speeds up the finance market's development step and opens up the investment channel effectively. Fourth improves finance ecological environment and strengthens the entire social credit mechanism construction. Fifth, the commercial bank transforms the growth way and the management pattern. Through these measures, it may make up in our country economic structure and the financial system's flaw, thus enhancement commercial bank's own Competitiveness, enhancement the ability of adjustment liquidity for commercial bank.