An Empirical Study On The Relationship Between Urban Housing Price And Rent Based On ARDL Model

With the development of the real estate market and its roaring prices,the government intends to pursue a long-term mechanism for the steady implementation of the housing market system.Stabilizing land prices and housing prices,and vigorously developing the rental market also have been mentioned on the agenda of the government's work.Whether the development of the rental market plays a key role in stabilizing housing market or not?This paper describes the relationship between the housing market and the rental market,as well as the related theoretical research,and analyses the current situation of the housing market and the rental market in large ten cities in China.Based on the data about the monthly housing price index and rental price index covering the area of top ten cities including Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin,Chongqing,Shenzhen,Guangzhou,Hangzhou,Nanjing,Wuhan and Chengdu in China through 2016-2018,shown on www.Fangtianxia.com,this paper based on ARDL model does an empirical research on the relationship between the housing price and the rent.The results show that there is a significant long-term co-integration relationship between housing price index and rental price index in Beijing,Shanghai,Shenzhen,Guangzhou,Nanjing and Wuhan,but in the long run average weight of the rent influenced on the housing price is slight.However,the long-term relationship between housing price index and rental price index is not significant in Tianjin,Chongqing,Hangzhou and Chengdu.The relationships between the housing price and the rents are obvious regional differences.Based on these relationships,this paper suggests that the government might give different policies on different cities to stabilize the housing prices instead of limited the price such as raising rent appropriately in cities like Beijing,Shanghai,Shenzhen,Guangzhou,Nanjing and Wuhan.But to the other cities like Tianjin,Chongqing,Hangzhou and Chengdu,because of the fragile linkage between the price and rent,the government should focuses on the adjustment and improvement of the housing supply system and it is not available to enhance the rent.This paper provides a reference for the implementation of macro-control policies of real estate in accordance with local conditions and urban policies.