The Statistical Research On Problem Of Excess Liquidity In China

In recent years, excess liquidity has become a hot issue concerned by the government and scholars. But the research on excess liquidity is still in the initial stage. How to understand it? What phenomena does it have? What harmful influences can it bring? What are the reasons? How to measure it? All of those need further and systematic research.In this article, excess liquidity means that the actual supply of general money is significant more than the demand by effective economic yields. Basing that, we elaborate its phenomena and harmful influences systematically. As well we analyze the reasons, which are structure unbalance and region unbalance in economic, unreasonable policy of treating foreign capital and foreign trade, global excess liquidity, anticipating for Renminbi revaluation, dropping of the ratio of currency to deposits, surplus productive capacity, weaknesses finance system and so on, from the aspects of money supply and money demand.Further more, we design two measuring indicators of excess liquidity, namely, coefficient of excess stock of liquidity (CESL) and coefficient of excess increment of liquidity(CEIL). We also point out the judging standards of whether there is excess liquidity or not. When CESL is larger than its ideal level and the extent of the difference between them exceeds the extent decided by the given level of significance, excess liquidity exists.As implication, we use the sample from the 1st season in 1997 to the last season in 2005 to train out the measuring model of excess liquidity and its judging standards in China. And using the measuring model and judging standards, we analyze the situation of excess liquidity from 1st season in 2006 to the 2nd season in 2007. The result shows that China has excess liquidity in all the 6 seasons, the mean of CESL was high to 0.229, which means during this period the average excess amount of normal money and real money reached 6180 billions Yuan and 5340 billions Yuan respectively. We also find that the most serious season is the 3rd season in 2006, when CESL is 0.287, and the excess amount of normal money reached 7270 billions Yuan. And the smallest excess amount of normal money is 3520 billions Yuan, which belonged to the 4th season in 2006.