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Study On Technological Innovation Investment Decisions Of Enterprise Based On Real Options Game Theory

Posted on:2010-07-07Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:T LiuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2189360278962266Subject:Accounting
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The world economy entered into the knowledge-based economy at the end of the 20th century, and technological innovation has become a new industry of faith. The speed of technological innovation, as well as the strength and effectiveness, have become the key factors of various enterprises evaluating its operating performance, competitiveness and development potential. Technological innovations are composed of adopting and providing (R&D) technologies, which are two interactive aspects. There always exist a lot of uncertain factors in the investment decisions of two aspects. These uncertainties entitle firms a lot of dynamic managerial flexibility. In order to seriously consider and utilize these uncertainties, to overcome the traditional shortcomings of the investment decision-making tool, based on the real option of investment decision-making methods have begun to attract investors. Real options method takes into account the value of flexibility in decision-making, an important feature of its way to analysis is to integrate the investment decision-making and market valuation, which can provide technical innovation and innovation in enterprises with more scientific methods of analysis and valuation models.On the other hand, corporate innovation investment is an important part of enterprises competitiveness strategy. Although the real options approach takes into account the value of flexibility in decision-making, it does not take into account the reflection of other competitors. Based on characteristics of enterprises technological innovation, we must take into account the thinking of the real options and game to make technological innovation investment decision-making more scientific and rational.Firstly, this article carries on a survey of research on technological innovation and real option game theory, and then analyzes the application of the real options and game theory in the investment decision-making. The research framework of real option is setted up based on previous studies, and utilize real option approach to analyze the critical value of investment projects. The traditional investment decision-making methods and real options are compared, pointing out the shortcomings of the traditional evaluation methods, as well as the strengths of real options in the investment evaluation decision-making; Enterprises investment decision-making will be divided into a perfect monopoly enterprise and various enterprises investment decision-making, further in order to simplify the analysis ,the various enterprises will be divided into a leading enterprise and a following enterprise, on this basis utilizes game theory to analyze their investment decision.Secondly, based on characteristics of enterprises technological innovation, the real options and game are combined to analyze the enterprises technological innovation investment decisions. First of all, in the monopoly case, this article only utilize real options model to analyze the technological innovation investment option value and the best investment decisions of the R&D phase and the development of market-oriented enterprises; then on the basis of the enterprises real option game model under the conditions of uncertainty, simultaneously taking into account technological innovation project construction period and variable costs of business investment, a technological innovation investment option game model of construction period is established, the function of the investment value of follower and leader, as well as investment threshold, is further obtained.Finally, this article utilizes quantitative analysis to analyze the single-stage and two-stage technological investment innovation of two enterprises. We firstly consider the situation of single-stage competitive and non-competitive, and then focus on the cases of the two-stage competition. In the condition of market-oriented competition phase, according of the difference strategy of precedent and competitive enterprises, this article considers four combination cases. The conclusion is that all precedent enterprises don't have precedent advantage and enterprises need to consider the strategic response of competitive enterprises. It shows that at the meanwhile of the enterprises taking technological innovation, they have to take into account consider the strategic response of competitive enterprises.
Keywords/Search Tags:real option, game equilibrium, option game, technological innovation, investment strategy
PDF Full Text Request
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