Research Of Forecasting And Evaluating Hydropower Value In The Electricity Market

The regional electricity market has being developing deeply , hydropower will competitive bidding with thermal generations in the electricity market .With the separation of power stations and electric power grid ,every hydro-power station should consider how to obtain maximum benefits through hydropower value forecasting and evaluating and optimal generation bidding strategy under conditions of power market ,which has become the hottest and toughest issue in the research of electricity market.Firstly, the definition, characteristic, operation mode and transaction mode are introduced at the beginning. Further, based on the advantages of hydropower and current operation mode of hydropower, the necessity of hydropower's participation in the competition of power market is emphasized and the research content of this thesis, in the overseas and home,is introduced briefly. In addition, the factor of effecting the bidding price is analyzing in the paper . The research of such problems provides the background and basis for the bidding of hydropower.Establishing and solving the mathematic model of evaluating hydropower value is one of the key points in the thesis. Firstly an analysis on hydropower generations , characteristic of hydropower value carried out, and then as a evaluating index hydropower equivalent value is put forward and the mathematic model of evaluating hydropower value with hydro operation constraints taken into consideration are proposed. Dynamic programming algorithm is applied to solve the model. A case study demonstrates the efficiency and feasibility of the evaluating method and get the importantly signality conclusion .The new operation and trade-off mode of hydropower in the electricity market , based on the hydropower equivalent value, is also proposed in the paper.