The Research On Uncertainty Of Decision-making Instantaneous In Venture Capital

Venture capital is one of the most rapid ways to investment in the 21st century. Its high rate of return makes people forget its great risk. However, there are also parts of its investment in high-risk dare not set foot in. How to reduce the risk of investment risk is the key to the success of. One of the aspects of the decision-making is done in time, if the risk factor is less than the risk of investors to bear the risk factor, then venture capital industry will be developed thriving. This will promote better science and technology and economic integration, Social science, technology and economy will develop more rapidly. Because of the risk of investment risk coefficient larger, people in the course of this investment, Tend to choose investment funds in phases to reduce risk. In accordance with the passage of time the latter part of the judgment or recover previous investment funds or let it spread, etc.In this paper, the use of dynamic programming analysis of multi-stage thinking. Use of decision theory and game theory, and other methods to build a new model. This model named me to it - the decision-making instantaneous uncertainty, Italy is a crucial moment in probabilistic risk assessment of the size and incomplete information to make a decision symmetric Game. This policy decision is the uncertainty, can only be based on mathematical method for the comparative advantages and disadvantages. We can use this model to a case study of Venture Capital.In this paper, the study is divided into five chapters. Chapter 1 on the background and purpose of research, and China's Venture Capital and the status of foreign investment risk analysis. No absolute targeted at a comprehensive theory of risk investment for the state model of the research done in this paper, Hope to the venture capital industry's development Contribution. Chapter 2 summarizes the investment risks in their predecessors in the theoretical study, namely the concept of risk investment, features, and the investment risk in the process of concluding several key parts to this. Chapter 3 of the investment risk in the risk factors and risk of investment in the probability distribution and the probability of solving method. Chapter 4 is the main body of this paper model of the building, on the basis of relevant theories, examples of the application of a simple decision tree research leads to the instantaneous results of the three non-deterministic model, and apply mathematical methods derived more steps and more general results of the instantaneous uncertainty model, the analysis of the application of chapter 3 Probabilistic methods and the risk that the model will be on the actual risk investment projects to study. Chapter 5 summing up the model of instantaneous advantages and disadvantages of uncertainty of its future development direction outlook.