Positive Estimate Research On Real Estate Economic Bubbles

There has been a more and more large body of academic and industry research on real estate bubbles in recent years including the warning from the central government. Report of China's Industry Boom Analysis said that the year of 2002 could be the turning point for Chinese real estate industry, and pointed that the real estate industry which had been prosper for five years would enter the stage of adjustment of the market. The true real estate bubbles have come forth. "Policy Oriented" presented by Construction Ministry requires that the inspection of land for construction and the project should be strengthened, and should strictly control the approvals of luxury housing construction and encourage the building of economic housing. The Central Bank inspected the business of real estate finance of commercial banks and emphasized that we should pay attention to the risk involved in the rising of real estate price and increasing of vacancy. The commercial banks should strengthen the credit loan management and look out the real estate bubbles when supporting the development of real estate industry.This paper is to explore the connotation, characteristics, causes and background of real estate bubbles, the possibilities of which are also studied from perspectives of production, trade and consumption. Based on relevant standards real estate bubbles will be measured. Based on the project amount inventory implemented in 2003 in China, through the Market cost method, the basic value of real estate in HuluDao will also be evaluated. Besides, in contrast to the real value of real estate, the paper will analyze the real estate market in HuluDao by using the quantitative and qualitative methods. A warning mode of real estate bubbles is established, and finally the paper brings forward the warning and measures of managing real estate bubbles.