An Analysis On The Preference Of Shanghai Customers On The Private Cars And Its Influence On The Unit Energy Consumption

Recent years Our nation has encountered a situation of fast rising energy consumption, from the sector perspective, the non-industrial area have consume more and more energy, especial the transportation area. The road transportation energy consumption has become the fastest consumption point. It becomes more and more important to forecast the number of private cars and the future trend of the number and energy consumption of private cars. But the existed papers are mostly focus on the developed countries and are not suitable for Shanghai. This paper reviews the models which make projections of the growth in the car and total vehicle stock. There are basically two kinds of methodologies to forecast ownership of private vehicle: aggregate and disaggregate model. The aggregate modeling approach is considered cost-efficient in terms of computation and data requirements; though it suffers from the limited representation of the process within a non-dynamic. The disaggregate models are structurally stable and capable of capturing the causal relationship between the number of cars in a household and the potential determinants of such a choice; the most popular method is MNL model. This paper also use macro and micro model to forecast the number of private cars and the preference of the Shanghai citizens. All of the data is from a questionnaire survey, data is apply to the micro model to check the real influence factor on Shanghai customers and the influence on energy consumption.