Research On Decision-making Of Stock Investment's Path

Since the birth of China's securities market, it has been focused on by many investors. Since the time of the development of the market is short, management tools are lagged, and the relevant legal system is not perfect, at the same time with financing for the business successfully, more and more problems has bean exposed. In the last 17 years, investors put a lot, rarely got in return, the stock market has become the paradise of adventurers and the sad place of small and medium investors. The vast majority of China's listed companies were that the best quality assets in China's economy, but small and medium investors do not enjoy these returned values, which should be reflected in China's high economic growth, and are looted by stock market once by once. The losses of investors are heavy, which led to China's stock market into the plight of unsustainable development, for a long time, and the market risk is increased, which make stock price's fluctuations unusual.The stock market rose from early 2007 more than 2,700 points over 6100 points, again in the next six months dropped to 2990 points, up and down violently, so in this environment of soaring in this minute and dropping in the next minute , the number of people who really got profits is minimal. Taking into account that most of the theoretical studies are staying on the stock portfolio of the choosing stocks'period, mainly to do guidance for institutional investors, and whether it is for investment of value or investment of trends there has not been a specific strategy, and in theory it is still imperfect. Through analysis of the various theories and methods, the introduction of the method of probability theory, guiding investment strategy vertically, I hope this article will give investors some reference.This article was first introduced by the relevant research results at home and abroad, mainly on the four schools of the relevant theories, including the analysis of basic schools, technical analysis of school, academic and psychological analysis of school genre, and then studied two specific investment approaches.In this paper, the third chapter is about the analysis of securities'purchasing blue print, including here in three parts, namely, market analysis of the macroeconomic analysis, industry analysis, and company analysis.First is market analysis, that is, the analysis of future market trend. The stock market has been called the "indicators of the economy" ,which means that securities market is the first indicators of the macroeconomic, on the other hand, that is to say the direction of macroeconomic Determine the long-term trends in the securities market. It can be said that macro-economic factors is the only factor that affect long-term trend of the stock market, while other factors can temporarily change the medium-and short-term stock market trend, but can not change the long-term trend of the stock market. The impact of the macro-economic environment on the whole stock market, includes both the purely economic factors like economic cycle fluctuations, and the hybrid factors such as government's economic policies and specific financial acts.The next is the analysis of specific industries. Industry analysis is not only the premise of analysis of listed companies, but also the bridge to connect macroeconomic analysis and analysis of listed companies, which is an important part of basic analysis. The industry has its own specific life-cycle. In the different stages of life cycle of development sectors, the investment value is not the same. The investment value may be due to different industries in which there are significant differences. Therefore, the industry is one of the important factors to determine the value of companies to invest in.Finally, is the company analysis, in the actual investment activities, investors'understanding of listed companies is necessary; otherwise the proceeds will face great risks. Therefore, whether the analysis of macroeconomic to judge investment environment, or the industry analysis to choose the area of investment, the choices of specific investment objects will be ultimately implemented analysis of the listed companies in the micro-level (excluding investment market index).In this article, the fourth chapter is about adjusting project analysis of the period of securities holding, including here in two parts, one is the analysis of factors which impact the price fluctuations in the stock market and the other is the establishment of model and analysis of adjusting project of holding period.There are many factors that impact price fluctuations in the stock market; here I briefly introduce a few relatively important ones. I have talked about the external factors, such as the macro-economic and policy factors, industry factors, factors of management and market factors, and the internal factors mainly about relevant factors that affect listed companies'fundamentals. In the analysis of adjusting project of the holding period, I introduced conditional probability formula, and used conditional probability to establish a adjusting model with probability for the decision-making of the investment. The specific adjustment is the number of positions in the different periods, and in this model I considered macroeconomic factors, which impact stock price fluctuations, industry factors and changing fundamental factors of listed companies, by anglicizing the change of these three factors at different stages, I adjusted the probability, which was scheduled ,to achieve accurate and scientific investment decisions.Chapter 5 of the article is an empirical study of Securities Investment. I choose zhongxin Securities as the case to study, select the time period from January 1, 07 to 31 December. Based on theoretical analysis of the first two chapters, first of all, I make a market analysis, and then I make analysis of industry and the listed company.This case took the way of combination of value investment and trend investment ,at the period of choosing stock, based on value investment ,I considered the long-term investment value of the stock, and shared a reasonable price range. With the application of the theory of trend analysis, I gave the different wave band of price movements and the price and the probability that may be possible to achieve; in the shareholding period, in theory, I combined the value investment and trend investment, to find a reasonable balance Points. At the different wave bonds of anglicizing the price movements, according to the probability of various bands of the stocks, I used conditional probability to design an adjusting decision-making model in holding period. Using this model, I calculated if the current prices had been achieved, how much the probability it reached the next price was, taking into account the various micro-macro factors that impact stock prices in the last period, and how much they might impact the stock price .I also presented a compensation variable for the model, to amend the original probability of calculation, using the probability to adjust the positions of various stages, we changed past decision-making by experience in the past into mathematical language, hoping to find out the scientific basis for the analysis of the stock .If we find there is no value to invest, clear out.In this paper, there are two difficulties of the operation: One of them is that, it is very difficult to give a the exact probability for different price to achieve, and the other is when there are a variety of factors that impact price, it is difficult to determine how much their degree of influence is, and when some policy is introduced, the impact will have a certain lag behind, while when people have long expected such a situation, this impact has been released in advance.