Xi'an Real Estate Investment Risk Measurement Study

This article is from the real estate investment and risk characteristics of the present situation of and draw domestic and foreign real estate investment risks on the advanced theory and methods of use of Monte Carlo method, risk identification and assessment methods, the real estate investment in different stages of the process Investment returns have a significant impact on the risk factors of uncertainty assessment study. In this paper, based on the Monte Carlo method to establish the real estate investment risk analysis model, given the impact of investment risk analysis model of the various attributes variables, and detailed steps algorithm. Monte Carlo risk analysis methods than the traditional method, is more suited to solve the multi-dimensional complex issues or factors, it's more correct simulation of the real estate development in the real situation of variables, more intuitive to reflect the laws of statistical fluctuation, Economic risk analysis to solve complex problems a good way.Monte Carlo-based risk analysis methods on the basis of Xi'an to a specific real estate projects as an example, for the project's two pre-programme the risk of decision-making. First is the traditional method of decision-making by the risk analysis, and then through the use of Monte Carlo methods of risk analysis methods, which are an important factor of the probability distribution of data in Matlab environment for the Analysis and Simulation , Then the issue of access to the distribution, was based on the random distribution of the variables affecting the NPV and IRR. Eventually, through the data comparison, the use of mathematical expectation and standard deviation to determine the occurrence of project risk, measured by standard deviation of the real estate investment projects in the size of the risk probability, based on the Monte Carlo method found that the risk analysis approach to risk a more accurate description , For the pre-project programme of policy analysis with a higher risk of the authenticity and reliability. This is the feasibility of investment in real estate projects to provide a certain amount of scientific and quantitative basis.