The Improvement And Research On The Application Of Monte Carlo Simulation Method In The Income Approach

Nowadays in 1990 s,real estate is not only as an important factor of production,and become the goods and assets,has been widely used in trade and investment.With the increasing of real estate such as real estate sale,transfer,investment,mortgage,insurance,brokerage,house demolition compensation,tax collection and trading activities,how to obtain objective and reasonable,with the credibility of the real estate price or value becomes more and more urgent,so real estate assessment arises at the historic moment in this environment.Income method,as one of the three basic methods of real estate appraisal,can be applied to the real estate of real estate with the income or potential income.In the continuous development of the socialist market economy today,the application of income law is bound to continue to expand.Because of the short development history of real estate valuation industry in China,there are still many problems in practice.Therefore it is necessary to improve and perfect the evaluation theory method,and improve the quality of the evaluation report.In this paper,the text is divided into six chapters,the first chapter mainly introduced the domestic and international for the real estate valuation method of;and then through the elaboration of the second chapter,the theory of income approach system combined with practice in the analysis of the third chapter summarized the main problems of income method in actual operation: under some conditions on the parameters identified is too dependent on the practical experience level of personnel appraisal,difficult to convince people.In the fourth chapter proposed by Monte Carlo simulation algorithm for quantitative analysis and calculation,reduce the subjectivity of the traditional income method,finally,the fifth chapter through the use of actual cases and summarize the methods and the use of experience and six chapters of the full text of the conclusion and prospect.Through the study found that due to the excellent characteristics of the Monte Carlo simulation algorithm can better solve the traditional income method in practical application in some aspects too subjective cause of risk assessment,reduce man-made operational risks and improve the quality and reliability of the assessment report.In the assessment and the traditional income method results are compared,we can find that the improved method not only can be used to verify the evaluation results obtained from other methods and under poor conditions of the assessment is a relatively moderate method.Because of the popularity of computer technology,the use of Monte Carlo simulation is simple,so the method has a certain application and promotion value.