Analyzing High-tech Product Project In The Option-Game Framework

The uncertainty, irreversibility and competition of High-tech product can't properly dealt by traditional investment decision methods, which lead to error decisions.According to the characteristic of High-tech product project, how to carry out the investment decisions of High-tech product project with the option-game is discussed in this paper. The superiority of the option-game, the option characteristics and the game characteristics and the game characteristics of High-tech product project are analyzed, also the applicability of the option-game under the conditions of competition are studied in this paper.This dissertation consists of four chapters. In chapter 1, developing studies of the option-game theory and positive analysis in and out of China are described. Then the innovation is brought forward. The innovation is: the investment decision is discussed under the conditions of competition by method of the option-game.In chapter 2, firstly, the basic ideal of the option games is presented and three important content of it: NPV, the option theory and the games theory. Then generalizing analysis frame is concluded. Secondly, on the base of the characteristics of High-tech product and affecting factors of investing, the applicability of the-option-game in high-tech product investing is revealed from two sides: option characteristics and the games characteristics of High-tech product.In chapter 3, the investing model is built under the conditions of competition. Then studies the furthest invest value and start spot of investing, at last, sensitivity is analyzed. In chapter 4, the whole paper are concluded, also some problems and further work direction are put forward.By the above four parts, the option-game is applicable to the investment decision of high-tech product project, which can be concluded. A brand-new theory and application framework for the investment decision of High-tech product project are provided by this dissertation. But the research and application of the new method isn't mature, deep researching on it has to be done in future.