Research Into The Application Of Option-Game Theory To R&D Project Investment Decision Of Enterprise

A R&D project is an important means to enhance competitive power and sustainable development of enterprises, and also is the impetus of national economic growth, therefore, it is very important that whether a R&D project investment is successful or not. Traditional investment decision methods can not properly deal with the uncertainty, irreversibility and competition of the R&D projects, and thus lead to error decisions. Based on the option pricing theory, the option-game theory and methodology can bring these three important factors to which the R&D investment projects face to one analytical framework to evaluate project and make decision, which overcomes the limitations and shortcomings. So, it is a more scientific modern investment decision-making method. Thus, it is more proper to evaluate the R&D investment projects of enterprises and get corresponding investment decisions using option-game theory and methodology.In this dissertation, the author firstly summarizes traditional project investment decision methods, and points out their limitations and shortcomings, and then systematically introduces the newest development of modern investment decision-making theory and methodology: option-game theory. Secondly, this dissertation defines the concepts of project investment of enterprise and its decision and its phrases, and analyzes the influencing factors and option-game characteristics of enterprise's projects investment decision-making. The project investment of enterprises has option-game characteristics, because that real option method can properly deal with uncertainty and irreversibility, and game theory can properly deal with investment competition between enterprises. Thus, we can apply option-game theory to make the decision of projects investment and capital budget. In this section, we have also done comparison research between real option method and traditional investment decision method (NPV), and pointed out that real option method cannot completely substitute for the NPV index and that it acts as a supplement and revision of the traditional capital budget NPV method. So it is suitable for real option method to coordinate the NPV index. Finally, based on option-game theory, under some certain supposition conditions, we analyze the strategies and behaviors of investment decision-making of two asymmetrical enterprises which take participation in the monopoly competitive market, and give some numeral computation analysis in order...