Research On The Affection Of Monetary Policy On The Stock Market Price

In recent years, along with the smoothly progress of the Reformation of Split-Share, the system construction of china's stock market makes great progress, and the market has being changed. As the full confidence of investors and surplus liquidity push the stocks' prices high and high, the research on the affection of the central bank's monetary policy on the stock market price was put up to the table's top, making it have important theoretical and realistic meanings.Firstly, this paper discussed the affection of monetary policy on the stock market price based on the theories. Considering interest rate, the affection of interest rate on the stock market price is mainly through two different ways: by the company and by the investors to influence the stock price; the interest rate and the stock price are usually inversely related. Considering the money supply, it is mainly through four paths : by the property combination effect, by the stock's real value growth effect, by the expectation effect and by the inflation effect to influence the stock price; usually, the money supply and the stock price are up or down at the same direction. Especially, in this chapter, the writer discussed the adjustment of the reserve rate how to influence the price.Then, through the empirical analysis, get conclusions: there is significant cointegration relation between the Shanghai stock market return and the interest rate with the money supply; the interest rate and the stock market return are the Granger reason to each other, and the money supply Ml and the stock market return are also the Granger reason to each other; as intermediary aims of the monetary policy, the interest rate and the money supply Ml, are more useful to analyze the stock market return; the affection of interest rate and the money supply Ml on the stock market price are consistent between the empirical analysis and the theoretical analysis, but the money supply M2 not so.The end, it's the paper's conclusion, including the policy suggestion. The writer considered that maybe it is fit to make the interest rate as intermediary aim of the monetary policy, carrying out interest rate liberalization; and linking properly the monetary market and capital market, realize the effective interaction of money flow between those two markets; and the monetary policy should be pay more attention to the stock price, and we should raise the monetary policy efficiency through the stock market ; the central bank should make strict rules to obstruct the unreasonable loans to go into the market.