Research On The Interaction Between My Country's Monetary Policy And Stock Prices

With the establishment and improvement of China's socialist market economic system,the degree of economic monetization has been significantly improved,the impact of financial operation on economic operation has been significantly strengthened,and the position of monetary policy in China's macroeconomic policy has risen sharply.At the same time,the stock market plays an important role in helping enterprises to direct financing and developing the socialist market economic system.Studying the interaction between monetary policy and stock market not only has an important impact on improving the transmission channel of monetary policy,improving the transmission efficiency of monetary policy and achieving the ultimate goal of monetary policy,but also has a very important positive significance for exploring the law of stock market price changes and guiding investors to invest rationally.Firstly,this paper combs the changes of stock price before and after the adjustment of deposit and loan interest rate and deposit reserve ratio by the central bank from 2007 to 2018,and concludes that the stock market is often depressed before the implementation of the loose monetary policy,while the stock market is likely to be prosperous before the introduction of the tight monetary policy.After the adjustment of interest rate,the stock price changes greatly and the impact of the adjustment of reserve ratio is not obvious.The conclusion that the money supply gap can predict the change of stock price is drawn intuitively by drawing the broken line chart of the money supply gap and the change of stock price.Then,the mechanism of the interaction between monetary policy and stock market is analyzed theoretically.It is concluded that there exists an interactive relationship between the change of money supply of monetary policy and the adjustment of interest rate and the rise and fall of stock market.Next,the empirical part of this paper uses VAR model to analyze the interaction between monetary policy and stock price in China.It draws the conclusion that quantitative monetary policy has more significant impact on stock price than prnce monetary policy.The impact of stock price fluctuation on monetary policy is weaker,and explains the reasons for this result.Finally,this paper puts forward the relevant conclusions.The corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.