Decision-making Of Supply Chain Inventory In The Circumstances Of No Alternative Sources

Based on the game theory.Considering the interaction of both supplier andbuyer's inventory decision,this paper studies stock-out times equilibrium out-come of game under no alternative source and attains reaction function of bothsupply and demand and Nash Equilibrium. Based on the case, comparing withthe case of alternative sources,retailer and distributor's inventory cost distinctlyincreases under the case of no alternative sources of supply.It contributes to re-ducing the inventory cost to employ the source of supplying. The larger numberof di?erences between supplier and buyer's reorder frequency is, the more favor-able to the source of supply. At last, we carry on logistics demand forecast bytaking time-series model and explain its application to logistics demand forecastby judgement of data stationary, stead, standardization, modeling, discernment,making steps, parameter estimate and examination to predict, error calcula-tion.Have proved in detail how the Time-series model in requirement forecastingof logistics was used .The reason shows that the ARIMA modle can fit and getbetter prediction accuracy in the medium and short-time term.