| It is certain that the high-tech company such as electron facility enterprise must make many producing designs and must bear great risk because of the uncertain investment environment. It becomes important to think how to control the risk and give an exact value for a investment of new manufacture program in investment decision making.Comparing to traditional evaluating methods, managerial flexibility is mostly considered in real options valuation (ROV). It is used to make ongoing decisions regarding implementation of investment projects and deployment of real assets. In this article, Real options theory is used to evaluate project value containing managerial flexibility and make optimal decision by a real case of electron facility enterprise. The research on the application of real option's theory in the passed years is summarized firstly in the paper. Secondly, the real option's basic theory, evaluation's method and it's future of application are discussed in chapter two. The characteristic of high-tech enterprise is combined in next chapter. The Monte Carlo simulation is adopted to evaluate high-tech enterprise's value, then gives an example of a corporation's three new projects at last. The value of a portfolio of investment projects is determined by maximizing the mean discounted cash flows. This value is calculated by the model over many combinations of the decision variables. An optimal decision rule that significantly increases the value extracted from the investment projects in comparison to arbitrary decision rules can be yielded, also. By Monte Carlo simulation, the optimal decision rule is determined by considering many possible combinations of the decision variables for the three projects. Optimization approach to valuing real investment options is found. It is demonstrated that selecting an approximately optimal decision rule using the simulation-optimization approach provides significant improvement over arbitrary decision rules. |
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