A Study Of Investment Decision For IT Project Based On Real Option

In recent years, the domestic and international scholars carry on a lot of discussions to the investment decision of IT project, they mainly use the traditional investment decision method and the method of real option. But traditional value assessment method don't considered the uncertainty of IT project and the influence of the policymaker's flexibility, they neglect the options worth of IT project; And some scholars mainly use B-S model to pricing directly while using the real option to solve the investment decision of IT project at present, but the uncertainty of the variables themselves that has often be neglected in the selecting of the variables of the model.The thesis directs against the deficiency of the current investment decision method, combine the actual conditions of project investment of IT, probe into the real option suitable for project investment of IT and pricing. The main contents are as follows.Chapter 1 explain the research purpose and meaning, research contents, research approach and technological route of the thesis, and carry on the survey to domestic and international IT project investment research documents.Chapter 2 analyse domestic and international IT project investment decision current situation and question. Comment to domestic and international IT project project investment decision current situation at first, then point out in IT project investment decision at present respectively, adopt the traditional investment decision method and deficiency while adopting the option method of real to pricing.Chapter 3 expound the fact that the basic theories involved of investment decision of IT project. For instance, real option theory, real option pricing, Monte Carlo simulation method,etc.Chapter 4 analyse the IT project investment decision. Analyse the characters of the project investment of IT at first, then point out the factors of IT project investment decision, and sum up the option characters of IT project combining the instance, for instance uncertainty, irreversibility, flexibility,etc.Chapter 5 direct against the option characters of IT project, probe into IT project investment decision based on real option. Sum up the basic thinking of IT project investment decision based on the real option at first, then propose the basic steps of IT project investment decision, put forward the thinking of adopting the simulation of Monte Carlo to pricing.Chapter 6 analyse the case. According to the data of real IT project investment at first, calculate out the value of the option in B-S model directly, then adopt the method of Monte Carlo to confirm the probability distribution of the uncertain variables when using B-S model to pricing, use Excel, crystal ball software, calculate, try to get the mean value of the option by repeated simulation, make the calculation result of the B-S model approach the true situation even more.Chapter 7 carry on the prospects to IT project investment decision based on real option. Summarize research results of the thesis at first, such as analyse the deficiency of traditional investment decision and the option characters of IT project, probed into the general frame of IT project investment decision based on real option; Consider that the uncertain variables involved in B-S model, utilize the method of Monte Carlo to pricing real option contained in IT project,etc. Then point out the questions that should also be paid attention to while using the real option method in IT project field in our country in the future, such as, preventing from IT project leads to the faults in investment because of over-evaluateing options worth, emphasizing on subjective initiative and managerial ability, perfecting the model of the real option pricing further,etc.