Studying Credit Risk Of Regional Joint-stock Commercial Banks Which Come Into Market In China

Credit risk which has endogenetic, dissystematic, procyclical and dissymmetrical specialties and so on is the main risk commercial banks face now in china and brings big influence for people'economical lives. But, because dissymmetrical message, short-term and erratic anticipation and so on result in bank credit risk, it is not avoided. So, studying the forming reasons of bank credit risk to take measures has important meaning to maintain stable development of economy and finance. Development of regional joint-stock commercial banks which provides experience to stock reform of state-owned banks and development of other small or middle banks witnesses the process of financial reform in china. So, literally speaking, paying attention to commercial process of banking in china should pay attention to the development of regional joint-stock commercial banks. Starting from meaning, specialties and forming mechanisms of bank credit risk and based on data of five regional joint-stock commercial banks which come into market, this article studies credit risk of regional joint-stock commercial banks which come into market. Through analyzing bad loan rate, loan field centrality, capital adequate ratio of theirs from 1998 to 2006 and credit risk measuring technologies, this article finds: although bad loan rate of theirs comes down gradually, this results from dilution effect of loan aggrandizement , so the asset quality is not good; loan client centrality comes down, but loan field centrality aggrandizes; capital adequate ratio passes standard reluctantly and loss reserve is not enough; credit risk measuring technology has some problems, such as lacking impersonal gists to confirming indexes and weight and so on. So, we think regional joint-stock commercial banks which come into market not only exist bigger credit risk, but also they don't access credit risk by themselves correctly, we need analyze the forming reasons of credit risk so as to take measures. This article expounds the reasons of credit risk coming into being from three angles: firstly, internal management system of credit risk is not perfect. Internal control system of credit risk and company fathering of bank exist some questions. Secondly, exterior monitoring system of bank credit risk has some weaknesses, such as not standing out emphases of bank monitoring, badly lagging of risk identifying and so on. Thirdly, credit system of person and middle or small companies lack. To the forming reasons of credit risk of regional joint-stock commercial banks which come into market which we study before, we put forward some measures, for example, learning from advanced credit risk measuring technologies of foreign banks, by time-serial analysis and ARMA model, we try to build credit risk precaution model to improve credit risk measuring technology in china.