The Calculation Of China's Civil Finance's Size And Empirical Analysis About The Relationship Between Economic

The problem of civil finance in the world is a theory issue worth exploring,and also a major concern reality.Civil finance has made outstanding contributions to the economic development,especially the development of the non-state-owned economy.According to one of the statistics in 2004,the contribution rate that China's non-state-owned economy had made to the GDP reached 63 percent,and to the industrial added value reached 74 percent.While in all bank credit assets,the non-state-owned economy only took less than 30 percent.It is the civil finance that has been filling this huge funding shortfall.So what the hell is the scale of China's civil finance and what's the relationship between civil finance and economic growth? Most scholars do qualitative analysis or survey on this issue and draw significant conclusions.But in view of civil finance's concealed characteristics, the survey is very difficult,and the results are also questionable.Based on this background, from another perspective this paper use indirect estimation method calculate the civil finance scale,also it does empirical analysis of the relationship the civil finance development and economic growth between by econometric methods.The full text is divided into five parts.First,the paper makes simple exposition of the domestic research on the status of civil finance,and makes focus on the literatures which estimated the scale of civil finance.Then the paper states the general theory about civil finance and the economic development.ChapterⅡintroduces the general conditions of China's civil finance combining the situation of economy and society.It contains the brief summary of the development process of civil finance and its distribution.And it gives corresponding explanation for the reasons of development from internal and external factors.On the basis of analyzing the characteristics of civil finance and reading an abundance of literature on the scale of civil finance,the third chapter gives out a calculation method under the premise of the establishment of some assumptions.It is the main points of the paper.Then it divides the country into eastern,central and western regions,does the theoretical calculations of each region from 1991 to 2006 and makes a rational analysis.ChapterⅣmakes empirical testing of the relations between regional civil finance and economic growth on the basis of the theory and data in the first few chapters,which mainly uses econometric methods to do the Cointegration test and Granger causality test,and gives reasonable analysis for the test results.And we concluded:regional civil finance and economic growth exist Cointegration relationship and significant one-way causation.In other words,civil finance promotes economic growth,but the economic growth does not have the same stimulating effect on civil finance,which is of great significance for further study.Finally,based on the analysis of the reality of China's national conditions and the current status of civil finance,the paper describes the prospects for the development of civil finance.And then gives out some measures and recommendations like making a discriminating,creating a sound environment for development,giving the legal status and SO on.At the same time,we must point out that it is due to the limitations of the methods and data used in the paper,the size of the civil finance issues have yet to be further explored and studied.