Credit Risk Management Of The Commercial Bank On The Basis Of Logistic Model

With the developing of WTO, our country has become one of most important and active members in international economic circulating system.Meanwhile, with the foreign banks entering into Chinese market, the competition of domestic banking becomes serious. However, our commercial banks are still in the developing stage and haven't prepared well to meet the challenge that coming from overseas. All of that force chinese commercial banks extensively to absorb academic and banking newest researching results as well as mature technology, to consult credit risk running pattern of advanced international banks, according to the risk environment and management peculiarity. In term of requirements of the New Basel Capital Agreement, establish a modern credit risk banking management system as soon as possible, which fits domestic commercial banks'running characteristics and environment.According to the relevant theories of credit management which are applied into commercial banks, this article proceeds with inner assessing, combines realistic conditions of domestic commercial banks, designs effective evaluation index system, applies Logistic return model thoroughly discussed the constructions of our commercial banks credit risk management frame. We try to offer some useful references for our commercial banks'credit risk management.The author reviewed lots of references, picked out five categories containing twenty financing indices that showing us the value of commercial banks.Then select 100 companies'correlative data, which have been listed to analyze indices, abstract all kinds of indices separately. After that, in order to fully understand the whole structure of the factors, this article construes the indices. Finally, we got 7 factors, it developed credible and effective commercial banking credit risk financial factors, enriched the relevant researching theory over credit risk evaluation.In the process of model establishing, besides those 7 picked-up factors this article introduces industry which the company belongs to and company scale these two company qualitative indices. We have formed our commercial bank credit risk evaluating Logistic return model .This model follows Logistic theoretic model. At the same time this model can effectively judge out the potential fell back probability.Then we choose 30 listed companies as test samples to prove the Logistic return model. The result has shown that the model has better forecast and enriched and developed the model's application in credit risk.We find out that ten indices such as the total capital increasing rate can reflect company's credit risk condition remarkably.The company itself and the commercial banks must pay sufficient attention to them.