Study On Irrational Behaviour Of Agricultural Product Futures Markets

After 15 years of development, China's futures market gradually entered the standard and orderly development stage, and scored remarkable achievements, particularly having obviously positive roles in the provision of agricultural product futures price information, protecting the interests of farmers, exploring the new model of the agricultural industrialization development and so on. International influence of China's futures varieties also is gradually growing up. According to the latest data of the America Futures Industry Association (FLA), Dalian Commodity Exchange has become the second world's active agricultural product futures market, about Have 2% quotas of global agricultural product futures and options. Among them, the rank of many Dalian agricultural products is ahead in the global agricultural products. The trading volume of Soybean Meal futures is the first, and the trading volume of corn and soybean futures is the second and fourth respectively. The rank of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rises to No.24, among the world 54 Exchange futures and options in 2007. So, as the fast development of China's economic construction, China's agricultural product futures market has a huge development potential.While the futures investors are making decision in the investment, they will be subject to the impact of a variety of irrational factors, and make some the irrational investment behavior. Irrational behavior will damage the market order. At the same time, because the price discoveries function of agricultural product futures market has a guiding role in agricultural production, the irrational investment in the futures market will also affect agricultural production. Therefore, in order to preventing financial risks, maintain stable and healthy development of the futures market and agricultural production, researching the irrational behaviors of agricultural product futures markets has extremely important significance.Behavioral finance theory as the basis, and "put forward a question—factor analysis—market performance—policy proposals" as reaserch idea, this study analysis the impact of irrational behaviors "agricultural product futures characteristics" and " investor psychology characteristics", through qualitative aspects and investigation separately. Then, it analyzes the market performance of irrational behaviors in agricultural product futures market at quantitative aspects. At last, it puts forward policy recommendations. This study consists of six chapters.Chapter 1 is "Introduction". This section introduces the background, significance, reviews at home and abroad, research methods, and the main content and so on.Chapter 2 is "Theoretical basis". This section presents behavioral finance theory, futures hedging theory, market diaphaneity and so on.Chapter 3 is "One of factors affecting agricultural product futures irrational investment behavior—gricultural product futures characteristics". This section analyzes at two apects: first, being differ from other futures varieties, agricultural product futures subjects to the agricultural products season character, climate character and so on greatly; second, agricultural product futures as a financial investment instruments, subjects to the same geo-political, policy and so on.Chapter 4 is "One of factors affecting agricultural product futures irrational investment behavior—investor psychology characteristics". Through investigating futures investors, this section makes a statistical analysis of survey results.Chapter 5 is "The main market performances of agricultural product futures irrational investment behavior". Through calculating three main statistical indicators, this section makes empirical studies on the agricultural product futures irrational investment behavior. The results show that the irrational degree of China's agricultural product futures is higher, compared with the mature abroad futures markets.Chapter 6 is "Conclusions and Suggestions". This section sums up the final conclusions and proposes counter measures.In this study, there are several innovations: 1. study the futures investor irrational investment's psychology in questionnaire's way; 2. study the futures market irrational behavior's market performance quantitatively using the targets; 3. making futures market price discovery function as a basis, and combing the present global food shortage, propose some suggestions and the measure that can develop china's agricultural product futures market and solve our country food shortage problem.