A Theoretical And Positive Study On The Relationship Between Fictitious Economy And Real Economy

Fictitious economy and real economy constitute a new pattern of modern economy system. The trend of economic fictionalization has changed the modern economic significantly; the status and relationship between fictitious economy and real economy have been undergoing unprecedented changes. It stands that, from many phenomena, fictitious economy and real economy have separated. Fictitious Economic excels real economy in the scale and developing pace, and increasingly becomes a relatively independent economic field.This paper consists of eight chapters. The first chapter reviews previous researches, both domestic and overseas, on fictitious economy and the relationship between fictitious economy and real economy. And in Chapter 3 audience will come into a comprehensive and updated presentation about the relationship between the two, such as Separation hypothesis, theory of interaction and doctrine of interaction and crisis. On the basis of previous studies, Chapter 2 makes an analysis on the potential effects of fictitious economy and mechanism through which fictitious economy carries effect on real economy. Fictitious economy affects real economy through four main channels, both with positive effects and negative effects. In order to judge the relationship between China's fictitious economy and real economy, the fourth chapter turns to Financial Interaction ratio, Marshall K-value and the flow indicator, verifying three categories of theory on the data from 1991 to 2007, arriving an empirical judgment. Only one indicator supports the hypothesis of separation, in other words, there is no solid evidence to proof that China's fictitious economy has decoupled from real economy during the period of observation. In order to further quantify the relationship between the two, Chapter 5 of the article applies an approach combined with the gray relevancy and econometrics to make an empirical analysis. Generally speaking, the separation between fictitious economy and real economy is just a lip-deep symptom. In fact, there is a benign interaction between fictitious economy and real economy, and further, the interaction between the two is asymmetrical, the marginal spillover effect of fictitious economy on real economy is much larger than that of the real economy on fictitious economy. The interaction between fictitious economy and real economic belongs to "supplement-dominated" type. From the aspect of structure, sectors of fictitious economy are related with real economy, among others, the stock market has a stronger impact on the real economy. To search for the border of fictitious economy growth, Chapter 6 turns to dynamic analysis approach and makes a study on the path of narrowed fictitious economy growth. With the passage of time, fictitious economy will not expand endlessly; there is a moderate scale for narrowed fictitious economy. On this basis, Chapter 7 puts forward some suggestions for promoting the interaction between fictitious economy and real economy. Chapter 8 launches a prospect of the future research fields on the relationship between the two.