| In resent years, as the catalyst and hatchibator of the New Economy, venture investment has grown rapidly and become more and more important. But also pauses regarding the venture investor decision-making's understanding in the qualitative stratification plane, thought that the venture investor is "the rational person", but the massive empirical study indicated: people's behavior and psychological feelings, and other subjective factors is playing the noticeable role in the investment; the people of the reality faced by investment uncertainty, there are many cognitive error, it is impossible to completely rational approach to decision-making, which will present each kind of leaning nature in the investment behavior (to stir up) and the emotionalism characteristic, therefore, it is extremely important that study the venture investment decision under the limited rational condition. This research based on the latest international achievements in theoretical study, using the venture investment theory , bounded rationality theory, prospect theory as the guides,this paper analysis and interpret that how does investers make decisions under the uncertain conditions , has conducted the following research and the innovation:1.Quantitatively analyzing the elaboration to the venture investment behavior's limited rationality. First it introduced the venture investment's uncertainty, obtains the undertaking bond investor's limited rationality from our country's venture investment developing process; Then, it has analyzed the venture investor carries on when the investment the bounded rationality concrete manifestation; Ultimate analysis limited rationality to venture investment decision flow influence.2.Improving the traditional venture investment decision method with Prospect Theory : First it has conducted the research to the venture investment's itemized appraisal and decision tree's constitution, proposed that the constitution venture investment's itemized appraisal and decision tree's two sub-systems respectively are: Venture investment project risk assessment and policy-making information foundation and venture investment itemized appraisal and decision method. This dissertation build a venture investment decision-making model based on the Prospect Theory. In the value function substitution expected utility theory utility function, the weighting function in the expected utility theory probability will transform into the policy-making weight.3.Establishing venture investment portfolio decision-making model based on the Mental Account: First it analyzes the venture combination the superiority and the present combined method existence insufficiency, then based on the psychological account theory ,it proposes venture investment profolio model. |
