A Positive Analysis On Earnings Forecasting Of The Listed Companies

The earnings forecast information is vital to the securities market ,thus this thesis puts it as a question for discussion shows a vision of significance .The research of this thesis is from the very point of supplement to explore how we can improve the earnings forecast information quality .This thesis propose that to guarantee the supplement and forecast qualitatively ,the key issue is to ensure the agency-analysers' earnings forecast information ,with the core point of earnings forecast techno-research .The positive analysis of this thesis is just focus on the earnings forecast methodology from the point of agency-analyser principal parters.Through the way of positive analysis ,this thesis break through the routine of correlation analysis ,it puts forward the earnings forecast methodology to safeguard the quality of supplement .The thesis uses several foreign agency-analysers' earnings forecast methodology to forecast the earnings of the listed company in the year 2006 .Then use the gained forecast earnings versus the market forecast earnings from Wind data-base and their actual earnings value ,to demonstrate positive analysis on earnings forecasting of the listed companies .The result turns out to be based on the time series analysis ,earnings component forecasts model plus the coefficient adjustment are effective methods .Its usefulness of earnings forecast not only involves it maintains the time series history durative and objective ,but also reflects the industry status .As to the models we established ,the forecast earnings of earnings first-order autoregressive model is better than the market forecast earnings from Wind data-base .Furthermore ,the forecast earnings of disaggregate earnings from income statement model is as well as the market forecast earnings from Wind data-base .Therefor this two models have significant meanings in the road to advance the earnings forecast information quality .The ideology of decomposing the earnings in the forecast model and the coefficient adjustment method this thesis adopt ,explore a new thinking manner in the positive investigation about the listed company earnings forecast ,so as to the purpose of this thesis :guarantee the supplement of earnings forecast information ,improve the quality of earnings forecast.