Research On Intellectual Capital Information Disclosure Of Listed Companies On Analysts' Earnings Forecast

With the development of science and technology and the rise of information technology,human society has entered a society with knowledge as the main driving force of economic growth.For enterprises,intellectual capital is an important driving force helping create enterprise value and enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises.And many domestic and foreign scholars have confirmed the relationship between intellectual capital information disclosure and enterprise value,enterprise performance with empirical research.Therefore,more and more enterprises are gradually strengthening the management of intellectual capital and actively raising the level of disclosure of intellectual capital information to external investors to demonstrate the investment value of the enterprises.As information intermediaries in the capital market,security analysts are important information users and disseminators.So the interpretation of intellectual capital information by security analysts will directly affect the investment decisions of the most of investors,and then affect the effectiveness of the entire capital market.However,based on the reality that the capital market of our country is still in its infancy,the system is not very sound and the start of analyst industry is relatively late,few domestic scholars have studied the relationship between intellectual capital information disclosure and analysts' forecast behavior.Therefore,the study of the relationship between the level of intellectual capital information disclosure and the behavior of analysts' forecasting is of great significance in enhancing the disclosure level of intellectual capital information,promoting the development of the analyst industry,improving the efficiency of the capital market and protecting the interests of the individual investors.This paper takes the 2011-2013 Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed high-tech companies as research samples.The evaluation index of the level of intellectual capital information disclosure is from the intellectual capital information disclosure research group of Fuzhou University.Using quantitative analysis software STATA12.0 for data processing,after controlling firm size,leverage,growth and some other financial factors,this paper studies the impact of intellectual capital information disclosure of listed companies on the analysts' forecast behavior.And the empirical results show that:(1)there is a positive correlation between the level of intellectual capital information disclosure and the number of analyst following;(2)the disclosure level of intellectual capital information and security analysts' forecast accuracy on earnings per share is positively correlated;(3)the intellectual capital information disclosure level and analysts' earnings forecast dispersion is negatively correlated;(4)the impact of intellectual capital information disclosure on analysts'earnings forecasts is more significant for a profitable company.Besides,it also shows that due to lack of theory guidance,the practice of intellectual capital information disclosure faces great challenge which leading to the disclosure level at the present stage of listed companies in China is generally not high.Finally,based on the conclusions obtained in the previous part,this paper tentatively puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions from different aspects and makes a prospect for the future research according to the shortcomings of this paper.