The Multi-gaming Of Doha Round And Its Possible Results

The fourth session ministerial conference of World Trade Organization was held from November 9th to 14th 2001 in Doha, the capital of Qatar, which started the new multilateral trade talks. The new multilateral trade talks was called"Doha Development Agenda", or"Doha Round"for short, which was also where Doha Round came from. There were two historical tasks in the conference: 1. admit china to join WTO in entire agreement. 2. address《the Doha Manifesto》and launch the first negotiation since the foundation of WTO.Doha Round was the first multilateral trade talks since the foundation of WTO in 1995 with the main targets: restraining trade protectionism, promoting effects of trade on the economic development and impoverishment relief, processing marginalization problems of the least developed members, straightening out the relations with the region trade agreement, integrating targets of multilateral trade system with the sustainable development, improving exterior image of WTO to achieve the goals and principles of《Agreement Establishing the World Trade Organization in Marrakesh》. There were 8 main subjects when this negotiation was started, namely agriculture, market access of non-agricultural products, service trade, negotiation of the rules, trade and development, settle-down of conflict, intellectual property rights, trade and environment problems. It was the grandest multilateral trade talks with the most participants so far, therefore, world people keep on eye on it with great expectation. According to "Doha Manifesto" and the work plan, the negotiation should be ended not later than January 1, 2005. However, after almost 5 years'endeavor, the negotiation was announced to stop with no deadline on July 24, 2006, which has caused similarly shocks and doubts.Actually, it is not accidental in deep thoughts, because this unprecedented negotiation involves the most and broadest contents. From agriculture to trade and development, these eight subjects have involved many aspects in international trade. And moreover, as the primary industry of a country, agriculture is related with national economy and people's livelihood. It is always the key point of each country's attention, even if the developed countries. Moreover, if developed countries such as the USA may reduce its agricultural subsidies or compromise in other words, the precondition must be that European Union also pledge to reduce its agricultural subsidies and import customs duty of agricultural product, so do the developing countries in the aspect of market access of industry products and the opening of services market. This is the so-called Lamy's triangle-relation theory, which is also the reason that Doha Round was being compelled to stop. On the review of Doha Round negotiation, this paper will analyze and elaborate differences of key parties on each subject. On the analysis of present situation of each country, we will figure out their attitudes and offer and charge of each party, which is multi-gaming. Moreover, we will discuss the possible results on the basis of analysis and explain backwards of multilateral trade system and its influence to the unfairness of world economy order. Also I introduce the Stag Hunt Model, to analyze that Doha round will open, in connecting with the people's anticipation of Doha round and the present situation of world economy.In the paper, we add the chapter of China and Doha Round, because China has joined World Trade Organization while Doha round was started. In this chapter, we analyze the changes after China's joining WTO, and china's attitude towards Doha Round negotiation as well as its influence to China.In the conclusion part, from current overall situation of world economy development and USA,European Union's present economy development situation, we can have the conclusion that the Doha Round negotiation is necessary and will bring grand influence to world. Furthermore, the great trade nations will seek engine to economy growth by negotiation when their economies are not booming up, which is why Doha Round Negotiation will definitely open again.