| After several years development , China stock market has become the important constituent of socialist market economy . Especially since 1990s ,the development of our economic was steady and sustained high speed,the stock market had a prompt development too. From 2005, Chinese's capital market entered a new development stage. But, Chinese's stock market comes from the period of economic system from the planned economic to market economic, so the development and the operation have a lot of problems. And it has been perplexing the development of Chinese stock market. All theses reflect on the stock price index, causing it to up and down . Then, what is the relationship between Chinese stock market and economy? The stock price index fluctuation trend being the stock market vane is worthy for us to go and pay attention to. The understanding of the stock price index fluctuation law is the premise to know the status of stock market in our economy to develop and adjust stock market it also has great importance at the same time to the development of the stock market, even to our country's development of the economy.According to the basis of the study inland and abroad of the relationships between stock price index and macro-economy factors,using the VAR method ,the paper establishs a series of factors that affect the stock price index and establishs the simulate and forecast model based on the macro-economy factors. Finally, with the actual situation of Shanghai stock price index and our country's economy status the paper conducts a demonstration analysis,making a simulation and forecast of the Shanghai stock price index . The result shows: the analysis can reflects the relationship between the stock price index and the macro-economy factors in a long time,it also can give a proper forecast for the trend of the Shanghai stock price index .But in a short time,the stock price index can be affected by other factors.The result provide proposals for the development of China's stock market,and it has significance both in theory and practical. Structures of this article are as follows:In the part of Instruction it mainly concerns study background, content, method and value of this article.The first part:The basic thories of stock price index introduces the concepe,calculate methods , some famous stock price index and the macro-economy factors how to influence the stock price index.The second part : The methods of stock price index forecast inland and abroad introduce a lot of methods to forecast the stock price index and have an analysis.The third part: the select and weight of the factors introduces the method to confirm the select and weight of the factorsThe fourth part: the construction of the simulate and forecast establish the model on the basis of the factors .The fifth part: demonstration analysis conduct a simulation and forecast use the data of our country'macro-economy and Shanghai stock price index.The sixth part:the analysis of the stock price index and suggestions give some suggestions on how to develop our stock market healthy and quickly.There are some innovations in the paper: From quantitative and qualitative views, the paper creatively establishes a suit of scientific,comprehensive,reasonable indicators system and endowes with indicators weight by using VAR method; according to the systematic,objective,scientific,operational principles ,the paper establishes the simulate and forecast model of the stock price index.And the proposals have novelty and can be put into operation.Of course,the model that this paper establishes is only author's understanding.Because of the complexity of macro-economy and stock price index and author's limited knowledge,there are still some knowledge to desiderate and consummate. Author hope this paper can play some role and promote the further development of the study of stock price index simulation and forecast. |
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