Empirical Research On The Relation Of Affiliated Transactions& Financial Crises Of The Listed Companies In China

A hot research field in the academic world--forecasting financial crises from affiliated transactions of listed companies, is studied in this paper. We analyze affiliated transactions of listed companies and the relationship between affiliated transactions and financial crises in China from theoretical, empirical and policy aspects.In the aspect of theoretical analyses, firstly, we use financial market theory and corporate governance theory to analyze affiliated transactions from international and domestic views, and we reveal the shortcomings of listed companies'affiliated transactions and the problems exposed in our supervision; secondly, we use financial risk management theory to review the risk identification and measurement methods; lastly, we discuss how affiliated transactions lead to financial crises and how they affect financial indexes based on financial management theory, providing a theoretical foundation for empirical analyses.In the aspect of empirical analyses, we calculate the financial index with the data selected from financial reports of listed companies and adjusted according to affiliated transactions in China. Then, we use econometric methods and statistical software to build logistic regression model, forecasting financial crises. After comparing figures of M.D and MSE of these models, we get the result that the model built on adjusted data is better than the one built on non-adjusted data in forecasting financial crises. Further more, we validate the deduction that affiliated transactions of listed companies deteriorate their financial statuses prominently.Based on the above study, we give the following policy recommendations, deepening the reform of IPO, improving the supervision indexes system on listed companies, establishing information disclosure mechanism grounded on both market supervision and government regulation, improving laws to protect the interests of small shareholders, bettering accounting rules about affiliated transactions and strengthening the duty of board of supervisors in financial supervisions.