The Substantial Evidence Analysis Of The Impact Of Oil Consumption On China's National Economic

Oil is one of the important strategic resources in modern industrial economy, known as " the blood of modern industrial ". Oil as a non-renewable resources and an important strategic commodities, play an important role in the development of the world economy . It will also become an international focus. The dramatic fluctuations in the world oil price changes the world political and economic pattern. Especially, the impact of the world oil price on the world economy growing significantly.In recent years, our country economy continues the rapid growth, the dependence on oil imports growing. The influence of international oil price fluctuations on China's national economy is also growing. At the end of the 1980s, China is the largest oil export country, except the OPEC. But since 90's, the continuously high speed development of the economy promote the oil consumption rise rapidly. China became the world's second largest consumer of oil, the third largest net importer of oil in 2006. With the development of society and comprehensively building a well-off society, China's domestic demand for oil keep increasing. The gap between supply and demand is getting bigger and bigger . In recent years, the volatility of the international oil prices has been constitute an enormous threat on the long-term stability and development of China's economy. And become unstable factors of the domestic economy. Therefore, it is necessary to study China's oil consumption and the international crude oil price volatility on the impact of China's economic development.In order to objectively analysis of oil consumption and oil price volatility on the impact of China's economic development, first of all, the situation of the world oil consumption and the factors of international crude oil price fluctuate are introduced in this paper. With the status of China's oil consumption, it point that the shortage of China's oil resources and dependence on imported oil is gradually increasing. But in the oil pricing we have almost no impact. The result, such as shortage of oil, high oil prices and oil security , has become a series of problems hinder China's sustained economic growth. So, the oil issue is one of the important problem of China's economic development. Then use the econometric methods do substantial analysis and research on the issue.Firstly, the three elements of the production function model with cointegration test and granger causality test are used. Proved that China's oil consumption and economic growth exist bidirectional granger causal relationship. This issue has been selected Ghina's real GDP (RGDP) to measure economic growth. China's oil consumption, the capital stock and the stock of human capital, three elements as the explanatory variable, established the model.LNRGDP = 0.179LNHR + 0.035LNOIL + 0.88LNCAPAssociation between variables are tested by Johansen test and Granger causality test. And get conclusion, oil consumption can promote national economic development, the development of the national economy can also lead the increase in oil consumption.Secondly, respectively analysised the impact of the international and domestic crude oil prices on China's main domestic economic variables—consumer price index (CPI)and the production price index(PPI). The co-integration test of the variables based on EG two-step method are done. According to the relationship between variables, the appropriate model are established. The third, using seasonally adjusted method—X12 studied the rule of the international and domestic crude oil price fluctuations. The corresponding oil imports strategy are given. EGARCH model are used on the international crude oil price forecast. By the following prediction modelFinally, the impact of the real effective exchange rate of the United States and the real effective exchange rate of China on world oil prices are discussed. Get the conclusions, the U.S. real effective exchange rates and international oil prices have granger causal relationship to each other. Low dollar exchange rate create the conditions to oil prices rise. Real effective exchange rate of RMB can granger cause changes in world oil prices. However, China's imports not the main factors lead to world oil prices changes.The relevant conclusions and policy recommendations are made in final chapter.