Decision Making Analysis And Simulation Research On The Supply Chain Uncertainty Management

With the general application of supply chain pattern, the uncertainty exiting in the operating process of supply chain has greater and greater effect on the performance of enterprises and supply chain. This study uses varieties of relative theory and research method such as complex adaptive system theory, statistical method, simulation and simulation optimization. Combining object-oriented modeling ideology, the study abstractly models supply chain system, calls the class libraries from social economy simulation platform, completes simulation program and does the statistical analysis on the simulation data, and so supports enterprises to make decision.The study firstly analyses the characteristic of supply chain system and the operation pattern of supply chain through complex adaptive system, constructs the analytic model of supply chain uncertainty, summarizes the origin of supply chain uncertainty and the factors deepen the effect on supply chain from uncertainty and the influence on the supply chain from the uncertainty. Then the following chapter focuses on establishing the swarm simulation model frame of supply chain uncertainty with expandability and flexibility. Thirdly, the study simulates some times through changing parameter value and discusses the effect from supply chain uncertainty with statistical method in order to offer support to the decision making. Finally, particle swarm optimization algorithm will be use to optimize supply chain design based on stock policy.So there are many theories and varieties of research method in the study and it improve the relation and penetration among different subjects, also it enriches and develops the research theory and technology on the supply chain uncertainty. In addition, the supply chain simulation model can be based on the enterprise logistic information system. It can acquire the parameter value from the logistic system and combine different decision to simulation, and then will help make decision and improve the marketing competition power. In one word, there will be significant in enforcing the competition of enterprise and supply chain fundamentally.