Simulation Of Supply Chain Uncertainty Based On Multi-Agent

With the rapid development of the social economy, competition of supply chain has become the mainstream of the economic competition. However, a great deal of uncertainty factors existed in the process of the supply chain have a great influence on the supply chain function and management of enterprises. That how to manage and control the uncertainties in the supply chain operation and how to in-depth and systematic research into the generation mechanism and the control mechanism of the uncertainties is very important for implement supply chain management pattern and enhancing the market competition of enterprises.Firstly, according to the complexity characteristic of supply chain system, the paper analyses supply chain operations model by the complex adaptive system(CAS) theory, and constructs the analytic model of the supply chain uncertainty, and analyzes the origin of supply chain uncertainty, consequences and the important factors of supply chain management uncertainty. Secondly, according to the object-oriented modeling ideology and the Multi-Agent thought, the article establishes a expandable swarm simulation of supply chain uncertainty, and simulates the model and analyzes the simulation result, and further researches influences of supply chain uncertainty with statistical methods, and then gives decision supports to supply chain management. Finally, the paper optimizes the supply chain inventory strategy with the particle swarm optimization algorithm.The paper researches supply chain uncertainty by CAS theory, principles of management, optimization thought and simulation technology in combine with the existing supply chain uncertainty management, methods and conclusions. The article links the multi-disciplinary theory and multiple research methods, and promotes the relation theory and penetration among different subjects, these are the enrichment and development of supply chain research theory and technology. At the same time, Supply chain simulation model established on Swarm is the function expansion of enterprise information system,the paper carry out the simulation experiments with actual parameters, give the decision support to supply chain management.