Analysis Of Technology Innovation Investment Under Incomplete Information In Real Options Game Framework

Science and technology are the primary productive forces, technological innovation is the main driving force behind growth, which is the consensus of the academic circles at home and abroad. If corporations or nations want to get a favorable position in complex and volatile international environment, ultimately it must rely on advanced production technology, while advanced technology can not be separated from technological innovation investment. Scientific assessment of the value of investment is not only the most important part of the investment decision-making process but also is the criteria of the investment's efficiency, under the shortage of funds, it is of vital importance to use funds scientific and maximize its effectiveness.Option-game method which applied stochastic differential equations, stochastic optimal control and game theory as well as other mathematical tools could overcome the limitations of the traditional methods, combined with corporation finance and investment decision-making theory. It has become the latest strategic investment management methods in technological innovation field.First of all, this paper outlines the technological innovation theory and the latest developments of research, systematically elaborate the theory of real options, which is done for the foreshadowing of the next chapter. Then we talk about technological innovation investment decision-making theory based on option-game model under the incomplete information. as in the actual investment environment, the market is not totally transparent, integrating the theory of option-game applied in investment decision-making field with the incomplete information will not only broadens our research perspective but also makes options-game theory closer to reality environment.The article discusses the option-game theory used in the technological innovation investment field under incomplete information condition through two models. Model one consideration in oligarch market, because the market does not fully transparent, the investor first to enter the market uses the information dominance which gains, transmits the false signal to the rival. The signal transmission game between two investor launch from this, based on the real options game theory, the article has analyzed two investor's equilibrium signaling game and optimal entrance time respectively under incomplete information. We transit our sight from the perspective of mode one to model two, may seen that when the technological innovation investment market transit from the monopoly, to the oligarch, and many investor's participation under incomplete information condition, many investor's game will cause investor's market value to receive more and more big corrosion. If preemption's superiority is quite obvious, more and more investors are willing to sacrifice the value of waiting. Preemption investment phenomenon would happen. Articles explain the causes of this phenomenon from the perspective of options-game.Finally, the article made the entire summation, and forecast the future direction of research in the field. We may discover that the option-game analysis method is a powerful investment analysis tool in uncertainty investment environment. The cost to be big and the environment to be uncertainty is the feature of technological innovation investment. Option game analysis method meet it's requirement quite well, If we apply this theoretical model into decision analysis of technological innovation investment, will obtain the more scientific evaluation and make the more reasonable investment decision.