Study On The Formation Mechanism Of Deposit-Loan Difference Of Commercial Bank And Its Effect On Macro-economics In China

Deposit-loan difference also means credit difference, and it was put forward"as the index for controlling the bank loans in management system of credit fund from 1979 to 1983. When it came to middle of 90 year, 20th century, the loan difference of commercial banks disappeared, in the contrast, the deposit difference appeared, which amount had become larger and larger. By the end of the 2007, the RMB deposit difference balance of financial institutions amounted to billion, which take the 33% of total deposit balance. Therefore, the sharp rise of deposit difference attracted people's attention and the academia did lots research on deposit difference.The essay analyzed the deposit-loan forming mechanism of commercial banks, the reason, its impact on macro economy and its countermeasures by adopting empirical study and theory study methods, on the basis of literature review on deposit-loan difference study. When analyzing the forming mechanism of commercial banks, the essay deduced the equation of different fundamental money absorbing ways by using the money creation theory. Then it analyzed the antecedents of deposit-loan theoretically, and did the empirical study on the basis of the sharp rise of deposit difference from 1994 to 2006. When analyzing the impact of durative deposit difference enlargement on macro economy, the essay did the empirical study and verification on the impact of deposit enlargement to macro economy by using econometrics methods such as ADF Test, Granger Causality, Cointegration Test, VEC Model, Impulse-response analysis, Variance decomposition on the basis of analyzing the impact of deposit difference on economy growth, the money supply, price and stock index.The essay got the main conclusions as follows: firstly, the deposit difference is in inverse ratio with passive fundamental money absorbing ratio, cash leakage ratio and money multiplicator; and the deposit difference is in direct ratio with excess reserves, which is verified by the sample data of relevant variables from 1994 to 2006; secondly, the result shows that the peeling off of the non-performing loan, the increase of the foreign currency, the decrease of the cash need ratio, the enhancement of structure diversified of bank assets and the depression of stock market all lead to durative enlargement of deposit difference through the empirical study on the impact of deposit difference enlargement on the macro economy by using the sample data from Jan, 2001 to Dec 2007; thirdly, in the long term the deposit difference has some impact on economy growth, money supply, price and stock index, and economy growth and money supply in the short term through the empirical study on the impact of deposit difference enlargement on the macro economy by using the sample data from Jan, 2001 to Dec 2007; fourthly, the essay put forward some countermeasures that prevent the deposit from durative enlarging as follows: push the willing exchange settlement system; enhance the assets diversification of commercial banks; consummate the financial market; widen the channel that residents invest; financial production innovation; widen the channel that bank run into the debt; establish the scientific credit incentive-obligation system; construct the market credit system.