| The real estate industry is an important industry of national economy. Seeing from static angle, it is extremely outstanding that the proportion that the real estate industry increment value occupies GDP, the exploitation and investment shares of the real estate industry occupies the social fixed assets investment, and the exploitation and consumption credit of the real estate industry occupies financial credit amount, along with the contribution to national economy brought by its development. Seeing from dynamic angle, as the real estate industry takes an important position in national economy, its circulating state will have great influence on the continual and healthy development of national economy.This paper replys two questions clearly: firstly, how to measure the price change of real estates? To general goods ,we use average price or price idex to measure the fluctuations of its price, but comparing to ordinary goods, real estate has its special nature and economical conditions as a result of its fixed position, which decides a variety of difference on quality and character. Generally speaking, we can not find out the same real estates. So general price index can't really reflect the fluctuations of prices, then it is necessary to look for a new measurement methods of price fluctuations. To measure price fluctuations of real estate market is to measure the price fluctuations resulting from variations of demand and supply of real estate market, which is achieved by establishing real estate price index. Secondly, how to manage the real estate price? To solve the questions, we need to think further: since the unusual fluctuations of real estate price leads to the crisis of real estate, what's worse, it can damage the economy. Then we face the question that how to manage the fluctuations of real estates. This question can decompose into two small questions, one is how to forecast the unusual fluctuations of real estates price, the other is how to efficiently control the unusual fluctuations of real estates price in order to avoid the loss resulting from crisis as much as possible. In this part, we are concerning on the role of forecast of investors: for example, on forecasting the unusual fluctuations of real estates price, we focus on the influence of psychological variation to price; on taking precautions of and deal with the unusual fluctuations of real estates price, establishing some policies and measures is to increase the information symmetry of real estates market, which makes the factors that inflence the investor weak, and makes the real estates market develop steadily, preventing big ups and downs.When it occurs such state as over-heat or atrophy that is unfavorable for the normal circulating of national economy, it will cause the real estate market lose its balance of supply and demand as well as its fluctuation in price. Therefore, it has very important meaning to study the price fluctuation of the real estate market, and through roundly analyzing, we can judge whether the circulating actuality of the real estate market brings unfavorable influence on national economy, and accordingly afford gist for state managing section to do management decision, as well for real estate developers and buyers to make investment policy. The study thinking of the thesis is clear and simple.Along the recognition to economy phenomena from exterior to essence and the thought course from cognizing economy law to exerting it, the thesis embodies the research of the real estate price fluctuation into three problems: measure the real estate price fluctuation, judge its character, and carry through managing it. The difficulty and keystone of the study rest with judging the character of the real estate price fluctuation. According to above research idea, the thesis is divided into four parts six chapters in structure, the first part(chapter one) is the generality of the whole thesis, the second part(chapter two) studies the measurement method of the real estate price fluctuation, the third part analyzes the character of the real estate price fluctuation form both theoretical aspect and demonstration aspect, including chapter three to chapter five, the fourth part(chapter six) proceeds to expand the research on the real estate price fluctuation, including the early warning against the abnormal fluctuation of the real estate price, the difference of the real estate price fluctuation in various area as well as the management on the real estate crisis.In chapter one, it indicates that the kernel problem in current real estate market is price problem by analyzing the development and the existent problems of china real estate market, and then points out that is has great meaning to study the real estate price fluctuation through theoretical analysis and using international experience for reference. In chapter two, it studies the measurement of the real estate price fluctuation. In this chapter we discuss the real estate price and the factors affecting real estate price fluctuation at first, indicate what the thesis pays attention to is the price fluctuation resulted from the supply and demand change in the real estate market, and then analyze the designing measure of existing real estate price index, point out its subsistent deficiency along with the difficulty to weave the real estate price index; finally after comparing the advantage and disadvantage of various designing measure, and combing with china real estate market's fact, put forward the idea to design china real estate price index by using Hedonic Price Method and the material path to achieve it .In chapter three, it studies the long-term equilibrium price model of the real estate. Based on reviewing the existing capital pricing theory and model using the thinking of behavior economics for reference, considers that the rational assumption in original theory breaks far away from praxis. Subsequently introduces the analytic model of evolved game, loosens the rational assumption to the limited rational assumption, and demonstrates that under the limited rational assumption and imperfect information condition, the equilibrium state of capital market probably achieved is different from existing analytic results. Under this equilibrium state, the investors with poor ration in market will not be washed out completely, but will keep a mutual stable proportion between investors with higher ration in market, and the market equilibrium price shaped under such equilibrium state takes on much more practical meaning. At last based on analyzing the character of imperfect information in the real estate market, we deduce the long-term equilibrium price theory model of the real estate under the condition of limited rational assumption and imperfect information, point that the equilibrium price in this time not only determines income flow in future, but also comes under the influence of imperfect information in market and the rational extent of market participator.In chapter four, it studies the circumstance of abnormal fluctuation appearing in the real estate price. Generally speaking, the real estate market price will fluctuate up and down surrounding balanced price. But in practice, it will appear that when real estate market price deviates away from equilibrium price, it can not return back to equilibrium price in a quite long term. We call such type of fluctuation abnormal fluctuation, and it is likely to arouse the crisis of the real estate even the whole economy. In the analysis of the thesis, we take hold of the capital attribute of the real estate-its price fluctuation is influenced by anticipation, analyze the anticipated model of the real estate market at first, indicate that real estate market appears abnormal fluctuation resulted from market investors having rather obvious extrapolated type of anticipation; and then analyze the probability produced by that extrapolated anticipation from the two angles: one is the limited rational exhibition of investors-following the masses, the other is the exhibition of imperfect information in market-the change of economy environment, and finally point out to achieve the extrapolated anticipation based on the adverse selection and moral hazards between the real estate industry and bank industry along with the change of financial management system under the background of open and free finance. At last we bring forward to describe the departure of real estate market price away from equilibrium price by using fluctuation index, and then to judge whether or not the real estate price appears abnormal fluctuation by testing stationarity on the fluctuation index sequence.Furthermore, in the process of analyzing the real estate price fluctuation, this thesis pays attention to the influence of investors'anticipation on price fluctuation based on the capital attribute of the real estate, and thus puts forward some valuable viewpoints, for example: it should design investor confidence index to reflect the anticipative change of the real estate markets'investors, and it should emphasize particularly on the attention to the influence probably brought by policy when managing the abnormal fluctuation of real estate price, and it can rely on confidence index constructing model to warn early against the abnormal fluctuation of real estate price etc. all these post better the inner law of real estate price fluctuation, and settle foundation for further studying real estate market. |
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