The Exchange Rate Fluctuation Of RMB And The Optimization Of China's Export Merchandise Structure

Since the reform and open up, the exchange rate of RMB has started its journey of depreciating first and then appreciating, Meanwhile, China's Export Merchandise Structure has been optimized gradually. The fluctuation of exchange rate made impacts on China's Export Merchandise Structure in many aspects. Based on the data during 1980 to 2006, this paper try to explain how the fluctuation of exchange rate influenced the trade structure according to Export Merchandise Structure.This paper is organized as follows:Chapter 1 introduces the background, purpose and then gives a literature review.Chapter 2 is mainly a theoretical analysis. It tries to draw exchange rate into the theory of comparative advantage, and then come to the conclusion that exchange rate could change a country's competitive advantages in the specified model.Chapter 3 shows the concept of many kinds of exchange rate and trade structure, and then finds out the data about RMB real effective exchange rate.Chapter 4 is the main body of this dissertation. We make quantitative analysis on the fluctuation of RMB real effective exchange rate impacts on the China's Export Merchandise Structure. We first introduce the relatively revealed comparative advantage index, and then use co-integration test, granger causality test and vector autoregressive model to make empirical analysis.Chapter 5 summarizes the main findings of this paper and then gives some suggestions on how to make full use of the new RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in order to upgrade China's Export Merchandise Structure.