The History Of Modern Econometrics' Establishment

The history of Econometrics is only 80 years since it has been an independent branch of economics in 1930s. But its prehistory can be tracked back to the times of Willim Petty. Petty and the school of politics and arithmetic started the method of empirical quantity, which was the origin of the econometric ideas. With the rapid development of econometrics, more and more Nobel Laureates in Economics won the honor because of their direct contribution to econometrics, also there are many laureates who indirectly applied the method of econometrics. The role of econometrics has been received more supports and people has also recognized the importance of researching the history of econometrics. There has been many economists researching the history of econometrics from the perspective of history of economy, but as econometrics refers to economy, mathematics and statistics ,so it is incomplete to consider the history of econometrics just from single perspective. This paper will review the history of econometrics from the perspective of history of mathematics by using method of history of science. It will research how the method of mathematics and statistics go into econometics and bring historic reforms to the development of econometrics. Through consulting a lot of material , the clue of the history before the establishment of modern econometrics would be cleared up, that is the history before the establishment of modern econometrics' guiding principle by Haavelmo, and at the same time , a few new conclusion would also be gained. The main work is as follows:1. According to different character as to mathematics and statistics used in economics in different periods, we can divide the history before establishment of modern econometrics into the following periods:(1)The origin of econometric ideas in 19 century(2)Research about business cycle done by Moore and other people in late 19 century and early 20 century (3)Basic work about econometrics in 1930s(4)The establishment of modern econometrics' guiding principle made by Haavelmo.2.Analysing the origin of econometric ideas, tracking back to Willim Petty and the school of politics and arithmetic.3. Introducing the research of business cycle in late 19 century and early 20 century , comparing Javons and Moore's work with Mitchell's work and pointing out the difference between their work. Javons and Moore are the representative of econometrists , while Mitchell is the representative of statisticians. Mitchell didn't pay attention to theory, what he cares was just measure. As a result , the saying "measure without theory" appeared in history of econometrics , which wasn't identical with the aim of econometrics. Because without theory , measure wouldn't go on . From this argument , we should say , mathematical economy and econometrics should combine and develop together. Cournot was the first economist that suggested mathematical economy and econometrics should combine together in order to research economy problems.4.Elaborating the work of Frish and Tinbergen in detail, introducing the dynamic economic model established by them.5. Introducing the work of Haavelmo about establishing the modern econometrics ' guiding principle .