Research On Distress Early-warning Models Based On Classified Financial Positions

Generally speaking, the absence of supervision would definitely result in severe stock market speculative atmosphere and restrain the healthy development of securities. Therefore it's of great importance for the regulators, investors or the management to classify the financial positions and construct a reasonable model to predict the financial distress of listed companies.This paper strives for a breakthrough in the simple classification of ST and Non-ST for financial positions. Instead 166 listed mechanical manufacturing companies are classified into four categories: financial full, financial equilibrium, financial distress and financial crisis. The mechanical manufacturing companies listed in A share market are selected as samples from 2005 to 2007. The thesis extracts six principal factors from financial indicators and market information as well as constructs the corporate governance index, which is chosen to be the variables of Cluster Analysis. Then the Multinomial Logistic model is proposed to predict the financial distress by the data of 2005 and 2006.The main conclusions in the paper are: (1) the empirical results show there're more financial distress companies, which indicates that the financial positions of the listed companies are generally not so good. (2) corporate governance is important in predicting financial distress. (3) based on select indicators and samples, the Multinomial Logistic analysis is proved to be of great accuracy in prediction. (4) the financial positions cannot be represented by some indicators. The principle factors can explain the financial positions well.