| Quickly changing market economy makes enterprises face various risks, including financial risk, in operation process. When financial risk accumulates to a certain extent, enterprises may get into financial crisis, of which bankruptcy is the extreme form. In modern times, many enterprises get into financial distress, so much as bankruptcy, because of financial risk. Bankruptcy makes investors, creditors, managers and employees incur huge losses. So they hope that enterprises can take measures before severe financial crisis. Financial crisis is not accomplished in one action, but develops step by step. In the developing process, the factors and characters of crisis will show in the operational and financial status. Observing and judging a series of sensitive operational and financial indexes and their developing trend, we can predict financial crisis, in order to take actions in time and avoid getting into distress.The thesis uses positive analysis method. "ST" and "*ST" public companies are defined financial distress enterprises. 39 "ST" and "*ST" public companies during 2003-2005 are selected for distress enterprises sample and 39 non-distressed companies are selected for partnership sample according to principle of the same industry, scale and time period. I do positive analysis on the base of the 1-4 years' data before distress. 26 pairs of sample are used to establish financial distress prediction models, and the remained 13 pairs are used to validate the effect of the models. The thesis consists of five parts:Part Ⅰ , introduction. It is about the motivation of choosing this problem and the research approach.Part Ⅱ, the conspectus of financial distress prediction. Firstly, I expatiate the basic connotation of financial distress prediction; Secondly, I review the research status of financial distress prediction in and out of China; Lastly, I expound the research methods of financial distress prediction. I briefly introduce the representative methods and models and compare them. |
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