RMB Appreciation Influence On Import And Export Trade Of Chinese Mechanic And Electron Products

The paper is on the basis of RMB appreciation and import and export of Chinese mechanic and electron products, uses data of import and export of Chinese mechanic and electron products, exchange rate of RMB and US dollar, Chinese GDP and world GDP from 1985 to 2006, establishes import and export model of Chinese mechanic and electron products. By ADF unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test and RMB appreciation influence on import and export of Chinese mechanic and electron products quantitative analysis from June 2005 to September 2007, judges RMB appreciate-on whether reduces trade surplus of Chinese mechanic and electron products or not, proves RMB appreciation whether causes contrary J-curve effect or not.The study indicates: If RMB appreciation is one percent, export of Chinese mechanic and electron products will reduce two point two three percent, import will increase zero point three eight percent. RMB appreciation effect of restraining export is stronger than effect of promoting import, and it can reduce trade surplus of Chinese mechanic and electron products in theory. However, Chinese economy increase, industrialization course, foreig-n direct investment, machining trade, policy of foreign opening and so on effect of promoting export is stronger than RMB appreciation effect of restraining export. So RMB appreciation can neither reduce trade surplus of Chinese mechanic and electron products nor reduce trade surplus of China. We should be rightly in the face of RMB appreciation pressure. Both exchange rate and world income have statistical consequence with export of Chinese mechanic and electron products. Exch- ange rate has statistical consequence with import of Chinese mechanic and electron produc- ts, but China income has not. RMB appreciation does not cause contrary J-curve effect.