| Today's world, the trend of economic globalization increasing significantly, economy and trade exchanges between China and countries around the world are getting closer. Since the reform in 1978, China's export-oriented trade strategies accelerate the transfer of global manufacturing to China. The status as a "world factory" has risen continuously. At the same time China steadily forwards to big trading powers. In 1978, China's exports totaled 9.75 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 4.6% of China's GDP and less than 1% of world exports, ranking thirty second in the world. While the volume of export trade reached 1.43trillion U.S. dollars in 2008, accounting for 33.4% of China's GDP. Compared to last year, the figure fell 3.7%. Meanwhile China's exports accounted for nearly 8.9% of world exports, ranking second in the world,36.7 billion U.S. dollars lower than Germany's trade volume.However, the development of trade is not always smooth, which is affected by the changes of trading environment such as domestic and international politics, market economic systems, stock of economic resources etc. RMB appreciation has put some pressure on the rapid expansion of China's trade. Facing the continuously intensifying pressure from international market and foreign government, on July 21,2005 the People's Bank of China announced that China implemented a market-based, managed floating exchange rate system, on reference to a basket of currencies with the adjustment, which made 2.1% appreciation of RMB exchange rate. Since then, there was still a small appreciation. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has brought a greater impact on export enterprises that are highly dependent on foreign trade, especially those small and medium enterprises with weak resistance against risk and primary production enterprises with low value-added content. Under the circumstance of the worsening economic environment, due to poor responses, price advantage of export product weakened so that most manufacturing enterprises that did not have the bargaining power bore the brunt. This blocked China's exports. To make matters worse, large corporate bankrupted. Some foreign-funded enterprises saw that the cost advantage disappeared, so they transferred their funds to overseas market, which made the factories an empty shell or left only old machinery and equipment overnight. Thus, it is seen that, no matter from academic research or policy discussions points, the study on the effect of RMB appreciation on China's export has an extremely important theoretical and practical significance.In this paper, VAR model and Johansen error correction model check the actual effect of RMB appreciation on China's export to the United States, Japan, the European Union, South Africa, Turkey and Brazil. The results show that changes in national income elasticity have a significant impact on China's export, while the impact of price elasticity was not significant. In terms of the impacts of exchange rate fluctuations elasticity, six countries have different situations. China's real export to the United States, EU and Brazil has a long-term significant negative correlation with real exchange rate fluctuations, and the real exports to Japan, South Africa and Turkey don't have significant relationship with exchange rate volatility.Finally, with reference to 80's appreciation of the yen and its impact on Japan's economy, we combine them with China's specific conditions and put forward some proposals to help domestic enterprises to ease pressure from RMB appreciation and expand export trade. Measures are as follows:Firstly, we should grasp the opportunity to adjust industrial structure.Secondly, we should improve export structure.Thirdly, we should accelerate to solve the problem of financing difficulties facing SMEs.Fourthly, we should speed up the reform of RMB exchange rate system.Fifthly, we should expand the international market.Lastly, we should make joint efforts together with other countries to maintain the international financial market stability. |
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