The Credit Risk Of Public Firm Under The Group To Be Reconized And Guarded By Commercial Bank

From the commercial bank's angle, this paper researches the reason and how to measure the credit risk about the public firm under the group. Under the limitation of the background of the group, further, this paper researches the formation that the public firm under the group. This paper thinks that the formation leads to the group violating its public firm. This paper believes that contrary guarantee, non-fair connection transaction and the major stockholder occupying the funds are the origination to the commercial bank credit risk, and the background of group cause these three stubborn illnesses in the capital market easily.This paper establishes the model about financial early warning by spss13.0 and use empirical analysis. In the indicator system, especially use these indicators: total connection transaction amount to assets amount, major stockholder owns stocks the proportion and total connection guarantee amount to assets amount, because these indicators can explicate the inflection that the background group to the public firm. So this paper's empirical analysis turns meaningful because of the three indicators. And the model about financial early warning is a useful tool that this tool can help commercial bank recognize the public firm credit risk under the background group especially. The empirical analysis result says that connection transaction is the factor leading the public firm to the special treatment. Since the background group can influence the public firm, commercial bank should pay attention to it and see the public firm as the group. Because of the flaw that there is no group nature in the financial early warning model, this paper analyzes the group factor qualitatively. The group factor could bring financial risk to public firm, including group nature, the real contemplation of group ultimate shareholder and comprehensibly strength, so the commercial bank should take it seriously. Following the reformation to stock ownership detach, group major stockholder will hurt the public firm continually and there will be much more means. So when the commercial bank loads money to the public firm, it should pay attention to the firm which the group may occupy its right equity.