Research On Financial Risk Early Warning Of BC Real Estate Company Based On Grey System Theory

China's national economy is growing day by day,the residents' average consumption level is constantly increasing,the demand for buying commercial housing is also increasing,along wth the growing of competition among real estate enterprises,and the uncertainty of the market is also increasing with the intensification of competition,which has a great impact on the financial risks of real estate enterprises.With the increase of macroeconomic market uncertainty,the financial risk of real estate companies usually increase due to political factors,interest rate fluctuations and inventory delays.In order to avoid being eliminated by the market in the severe market situation,we must attach importance to the management and prevention of financial risks,and on this basis,formulate a scientific and rational business strategy.With the in-depth development of market economy,real estate enterprises are increasingly affected by financial risks in the process of development,and enterprises are gradually aware of the key position of financial risks in the process of enterprise development.The thesis starts with the research status of financial risk early warning by domestic and foreign scholars,and summarizes the financial risk theory and financial risk early warning theory of the enterprise.Combining relevant theories,the thesis uses BC real estate company as the specific research object,and analyzes the current financial risk status of the company.And analyze the early warning sources of financial risks from both systemic and nonsystematic perspectives.In order to construct a reasonable financial risk warning model,the paper firstly uses the grey correlation method to screen the financial indicators and nonfinancial indicators of BC real estate companies to form a financial risk early warning indicator system for BC real estate companies.Then the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)is used to determine the weight of each index,and the current financial risk early warning evaluation value is calculated by the efficiency coefficient method,and the results of the early warning are analyzed.It is judged that the current BC real estate companies are in the state of the police,and the grey forecasting method is used to predict the future financial risks.According to the actual situation of BC real estate,the specific countermeasures to control its financial risk are put forward: establish a financial risk early warning organization and supervision organization;formulate an effective fundraising plan,reasonably determine the scale of debt financing;strengthen the evaluation of the profitability of investment projects;and strengthen the risk control of operational activities.It is hoped that the research of the thesis can provide some suggestions for the BC real estate company in the early warning and prevention of financial risks,and also provide some reference for the real estate enterprises in China in the early warning of financial risks.