A Decision Method Of Concession Period For Build-Operate-Transfer Projects Of Sewage Treatment

In recent years, the BOT has a rapid development in china and abroad, as an operation way of foreign or private capital investment for public utilities and infrastructure construction projects. However, many operations of BOT projects are not well performed, and the majority of the failures of BOT projects are due to rash decision-making. Concession period is a key parameter in build-operate-transfer (BOT) contract and a hot topic during the negotiation of concession operation.Firstly, this thesis summarizes systematically domestic and foreign literature and case, and analyzes comprehensively the characteristic and the deficiency of the fixed methods and the flexible methods. Afterward, it is concluded that, among those stakeholders of BOT project of sewage treatment, the local government and purveyor are the two most important parts; then it carries on the preliminary recognition among the parameters of influencing the sewage treatment BOT project operation, and makes definition of the key influencing factors of concession period in sewage treatment projects.Based on it, a decision model of concession period is constructed under uncertainty, and solutions are carried out by using NPV and Monte Carlo simulation. The method is certified by the data from some sewage treatment BOT project in Dalian. The concession period interval is also estimated respectively under two transfer conditions of heavy repair and non-heavy repair.Finally, to make the government and purveyor share risks during the project operation period and can shares reasonably when the risk appears, this thesis further builds the adjustment method of the concession period of sewage treatment BOT project based on the analysis of hypothetic project operating condition and the forecast of future tendency. It provides a referential method for concession period decision making in terms of this type of projects.