Alternative Concession Model For Overseas Transportation Projects Under Build-operate-transfer Schemes

With continual development in economic globalization andsignificant development in our national power, an increasingly number ofChinese engineering companies has entered the international contractingand investment markets of transportation infrastructure. BOT(Build-Operate-Transfer) is an important form of project operation.However, it is not quite popular among Chinese contractors. The mainreason is that overseas BOT projects have complicated background and alot of participants, which leads to great uncertainties of the projectperformance. Especially, concession period usually becomes a barrierduring the negotiation. This thesis aims to propose a reasonable, feasibleand scientific concession model for overseas transportation projects underBOT contracts.In the first place, this thesis introduces the overseas transportationprojects under BOT schemes and the concession period. Then, bysummarizing the existing concession model and its defect, the differentconcerns of private investors and governments are discussed. In this regard, this thesis introduces an improved deterministic concession model,i.e. IBOTCcM, by taking into account the case that in the post-transferperiod the government might charge a service price lower than thatcharged by the private investor in the concession period to increase socialwelfare. The determination methods of the service price in both theconcession period and the post-transfer period are provided as well.Based on the deterministic model, a stochastic concession period model,i.e. IBOTCcM-R, is then proposed accordingly by taking intoconsideration the risks and the variable attributes. The concession periodcan be further determined by using the Monte Carlo simulation method.At last, a case study of Western Harbor Tunnel in Hong Kong isconducted to illustrate the proposed models. The results are analyzed aswell.The models proposed in this thesis would produce a narrowerconcession period and would balance the interests among the privateinvestor, the government and the users on a more reasonable, realistic andpractical basis. In conclusion, this thesis has great value in both theoryand practice.