A Study On Freight Rate Of Dry Bulk Shipping Market Based On VEC Model

2016 dry bulk shipping trade accounted for 44%of the total international shipping volume,of which three major cargo iron ore,coal and grain is the main force of import and export goods,dry bulk shipping is the international logistics chain in the most One of the important links.From the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis has been nearly 10 years,but the world economy has not recovered,as the international dry bulk shipping market barometer of the Baltic dry bulk freight index in 2016 was below 300 points,setting a record low,The recovery of the entire shipping market is an urgent need to solve the problem.However,the shipping market is affected by a number of factors,the formation of its tariff has a certain complexity,to explore the international dry bulk shipping market supply and demand and freight factors to tap the shipping market mechanism to help the shipping industry to avoid possible operations risk.This paper firstly analyzes the factors affecting the supply and demand of the international dry bulk shipping market freight rate and analyzes the fluctuation of the international dry bulk shipping market in 1947-2016 and divides it into eight cycles to explore its formation Reasons,market characteristics and the characteristics of the cycle stage.After the analysis of the empirical analysis flow chart,this paper constructs the freight function based on the theory of supply and demand,and the effect of the ship as an investment tool has become more and more important.In this paper,the ship financing is an important factor affecting the supply of shipping.Try to introduce shipowner decision-making behavior as a variable into the model.After the stationary test of each variable,the variables are all first-order single and through the cointegration test,we find that there is a cointegration relationship,that is,there is a long-term relationship between the variables,and because it is a number of time series variables Finally,the vector error correction model of the Baltic Dry Index is established,and the Granger causality test is used to explore the causal relationship between the variables.The impulse response function is used to explore the comprehensive short-term dynamics between BDI and influencing factors effect.(VEC)and error correction model(ECM)under the same time series were compared with those of the same model under the same time series,and the results were compared with the same model.Time series,the results show that the most suitable model is VEC,and it is reasonable to introduce the two factors of ship financing and shipowners' behavior into the model.Finally,this paper summarizes the conclusions,analyzes the shortcomings of the paper and discusses the follow-up research direction.