Study On The Relation Of China's And US's Economic Fluctuations

It is a common phenomenon for the cyclic fluctuation of economy generating from the process of development in almost all countries around the world. In an open economy, the economic concussion in sole country or universal concussion will transmit to other countries, which play an important role in the formation of economic fluctuation in the other countries, and therefore brings on the trend of synchronization of economic cycle in every country. Considering both U.S. and China, as two prominent economy units, have a great impact on the international economy, the thesis focuses on the issue of the economic fluctuation and its international impact. Taking America and China as a case, the thesis studies the relativity of Sino-American economic fluctuation during the process of China's participation in the economic globalization, with the emphasis on the influences of Chinese foreign economic relationship with U.S. on China's fluctuation of economy. On the basis of the relevant analysis and the conclusion, the thesis ultimately aims at probing into the orientation in adjusting Chinese foreign economic relationship in an open policy and therefore bringing forth some possible strategies.In this thesis, the Sino-American economic relationship is chosen as the target of observation and the relativity of Sino-American economic fluctuation as the central topic. First, the common principle of cyclic fluctuation of economy and international transmitting mechanism under the opening economy is elaborated. Then the development and features of Sino-American economic relationship are demonstrated, together with the impetus driving the development. And later, by the comparisons between Chinese and American economic fluctuations, the author observes the relativity of China's and US's economic fluctuations through Sino-American economy and trade relationship and American investment in China It then clarifies every related index through VAR model to act as the differences among the effects on the economic fluctuation variables by the economic variables themselves. Some experiential analysis and tests according to the related variables are made. In the end, the thesis comes to a conclusion: There is a positive relativity between Chinese and American economic fluctuations in the long term. The transition channel of Sino-American fluctuation of economy is mainly through trading and American investment in China, and the latter one exerts an increasing impact on China's economy as the time goes by.Though there're plenty of studies on China's economic fluctuation, still there's a lack of researches specifically about the relativity between Chinese and American economic fluctuations. This thesis focuses on the relativity of China's and US's economic fluctuations through Sino-American economy and trade relationship and American direct investment in China. And new method has been applied in the research: VAR model is introduced into the analysis.