Real Options Approach In Connecting Plan Of Urban And Rural Construction Land

As our country is still in a period of rapid urbanization, the future demand for urban construction land is very strong in a long time. But land resources, especially the cultivated land are too scare that if we continue the way of construction land supply in the past time, the contradiction between supply and demand will be more serious, so finding the potential of existing construction land is very necessary. The coming of the connecting model of urban and rural construction land keeps the gross of the construction land and cultivated land, enhances the intensive utilization level, and alleviates the contradiction. However, the successful operation of the connecting model depends on the solution of two problems: one is the funds, the other is the plan quota.The part of theoretical research discusses the operation models of funds from the two problems above, and considers it a useful way to solve the problem of funds shortage by using the total sale of commercial land as the project funds resource to reclamation of rural settlements and pre-development of construction land. On the base of preliminary research to effectiveness measure of project, we find that the key of it is to ascertain the future sale of the construction land. In view of the limitation of the traditional land pricing method and the superiority of the real options method, the latter is used to evaluate the maximal value of the land development, which includes intrinsic and time value, then the related methods is used to build the effectiveness measure model of connecting project of urban and rural construction land, which comprises the short and long period models. On this basis, the scale of the turnover quota and commercial construction land is to be ascertained.On the part of empirical analysis, the discussion for the overall feasibility of the construction land connecting operation of Deqing from the views of future demand of urban construction land and the reclamation of rural settlements shows it is doable basically. Then the rural settlements to be reclaimed of Wukang are composed to be the zone of demolition, and the future accommodations of residential land, infrastructural land and resettlement land are composed to be the zone of construction. The study shows the turnover quotas of the year 2010 and 2020 are 251.43hm~2 and 636.40hm~2 , which are both smaller than the rural settlements reclamation potential value of 764.11hm~2 of Wukang, and far less than the corresponding value of 3582.23hm~2 of the whole Deqing. However, the scales of urban residential land of the year 2010 and 2020 are 52.47hm~2 and 129.02hm~2, the former is bigger than the corresponding value of the urban planning, the latter is smaller than that at the same period. This shows feasibility in the long run, but it needs adjustment to assure the operation of the project recently.